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The important b/t to wait for , who knows why and what the be will , Could be German elections on 23 Feb and Scholz gets back in and pushes the war drum button again. Hamas ? False Flag….
As the tariffs get applied, inflation will rise and will the Fed raise rates to try to slow, rate of money slowing so less income tax to grab to cover gov’t spending , money printers go brrrrrr to cover their dreams , so not all is solved, just needs time to play out.
Love that chart – feels like we’re in a replay of March-May 2024. My guess – we’re at the precipice of a short downturn (GDX 2%gap fill around $37.95) and then back up to the 4 peaks (no idea when it’ll break them unless we get a stock mkt crash/recovery first). If you would kindly post an extended version going back to the 2018 lows.
The miners have been terrible, obviously, relative to just about anything on earth, on just about every time frame.
You’ve got to at least give some creedence to the notion that mine nationalization risk goes up with gold price.
I am holding out hope with JRB’s thesis that once gold breaks out vs the 60/40 portfolio, the miners will take off relative to gold.
Who knows. Obviously I wish I had just held my investments entirely in bullion over the last 25 years. But I was always think the ratio had to at least mean revert at some point. Instead by all appearances miners could be headed even lower relative to gold, or at best we’ll be range bound at this lower range for a another year or two before a base is established.
I’ve found that the gold miners (and I’m only referring to experience with the majors), behave similar to paper silver. Marks time (more or less) on the creep up but gets absolutely decimated on any pullbacks or declines steadily when metals are flat or rangebound for an extended period. See link below and notice that mining stocks (for the most part, even in the 70’s) performance paled in comparison to physical EXCEPT when the metals were in a MOMENTUM rise. If the Metals plateau’d or went down in any manner, that’s a negative for miners (again in general, there are always a few spectacular fliers).
Conversely, I do believe in general Crypto and the NASDAQ performance have effectively sucked the life out of PM equities. Until after a market crash I don’t see Miners being recognized as longer term holds. Just focusing on being there when it happens, accumulating by range trading near the highs and just holding through the lows.
Interactive chart here.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/mining-stocks-vs-gold-and-silver/