JC does his usual brilliant work to explain what it is why it is and why NOW ?

Debunking a lot of fear Porn from “Our Side”

There is a TON of chatter all over social media about the Fed’s new money-transfer service, FEDNOW, which it rapidly rolled out ahead of schedule this week, quite uncharacteristically for a government project. Conservative takes have ranged from cautiously skeptical to completely unhinged doomblogging, hysterically insisting the new financial service proves the End is Near.

For example:

These kinds of takes might be a little overheated. There’s both more, and less, to the FedNow story. While I enjoy a good Apocalypse conspiracy theory as much as the next antivaxxer, this story ain’t it. Let me explain.

First of all, and most importantly, FedNow is NOT a digital currency. Not even sort of. Let’s get that straight, because there seems to be some confusion over that point.

Smarter objectors, understandably wary of any step the federal government makes in the direction of a central digital currency, argue that FedNow is a dangerous component of a future digital currency. That might be true. But, using that logic, you could also argue that a government plan to protect the Nation’s electric grid from EMP attacks was “really” a precursor to eliminating gas cars.

Second, let’s talk about what FedNow actually is. The new Federal Bank service is an INTERBANK system (at least for now) allowing financial institutions to instantly transfer money through the Federal Reserve. That simple concept confuses people, because they naturally assume that banks can ALREADY do this. People therefore think instant transfers can’t POSSIBLY be all there is to it, because it’s so seemingly … insubstantial.

But nope. That’s all there is to it, all right. Banks cannot already handle instant transfers. It still takes up to 24 hours (for a fee) or even days. Most other countries — and this will be important in a minute, so remember it — most other countries can centrally clear instant transactions. But the U.S. lags disgracefully about fifty years behind in the technology.

I know, it’s unbelievable. The only two options businesses can use to clear transactions through their banks at present are ACH and wire transfer. For example, I use Quickbooks online payroll service, which is linked to my corporate bank account, and it uses “ACH” to pay the team. It usually takes 2-3 days for them to get the money deposited into their bank accounts, and I pay a per-transaction fee.

ACH stands for “Automated Clearing House.” It was invented in the late 1960s and became operational in the early 1970s. It’s currently the most popular method. The other option is wire transfers.

Wires are even worse than ACH. In my small law firm, we send and receive about a dozen wires a month, on average. Larger law firms probably process hundreds. Real estate closing agents may handle thousands a month. And for whatever reason, a same-day wire costs THIRTY FIVE DOLLARS. If you don’t want to pay, you can wait three days for your money to clear.

And that’s it. The only two choices.

You probably still can’t believe our payment system is that archaic. I can prove it. Think about the proliferation of alternative services like Venmo, services that work around the banks and allow people to pay each other ‘directly.’ Why don’t banks offer that service? Why is there even a market for Venmo in the first place? Why can’t I just use my bank’s mobile app, and just pay whoever I want, whenever I want, without waiting?

The reason is because that service has never been available to banks. Not before now. Thus, FedNow is a third option for payment processing, joining the antiquated ACH and wire transfer services. Read it for yourself, right from the Federal Reserve’s own press release:

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Why haven’t they done this before now? Because banks didn’t want it. Guess what they did for the three days while all our payments were clearing? The banks collected interest on our money. Apparently it adds up to a lot. So, to preserve that lucrative line of inter-transactional profit, the U.S. banking lobby stopped captured government agencies from modernizing our country’s payment processing infrastructure.

“Okay Jeff,” you are saying, “I see it’s not actually a CBDC, but why NOW? Hmm? Isn’t it curious it’s coming out just when they want to make a digital dollar? How about that?”

Well, yes and no. As much as they’d like to control every minute aspect of our lives, I’m not completely sure our politicians even want to give up dollars. I mean, how will Hunter get paid, if Ukrainian oligarchs can’t roll up hundred-dollar bills, wrap them in rubber bands, and put them in ziplock bags? But that’s another story. Let me offer you an alternative, sufficient hypothesis for “why now.”

Consider this headline that ran in Bloomberg yesterday:

As you know, the “BRICS” coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has been working on a new global currency to compete with the dollar — along with a competitive payments transfer system. What do you want to bet the new and improved BRICS payment transfer system is instantaneous, and doesn’t take up to three days to clear transactions like our system does?

In other words, our creaky, fifty-year-old payment processing technology was a MAJOR weakness in the upcoming battle of the currencies. It HAD to be fixed. Other countries might choose to go with BRICS just because it clears payments faster and more conveniently. At scale, instantaneous transfers shifts a significant amount of interest from banks back to customers. It’s just basic economics.

Using the BRICS currency would be cheaper and easier. Not to mention more convenient.

So at long last, U.S. government officials applied a long-overdue update to our payment-processing infrastructure. It is entirely possible FedNow is more about preserving the dollar’s global dominance than setting up a social credit system. It is also very possible FedNow was NOT something they wanted to do, but they were forced to do it by competitive pressure.

In other words, we should have had this technology at least thirty years ago, but the banking lobby made sure it never happened.

Where is all this angst coming from? I’m not sure, but consider that anyone who is betting against the dollar is probably not too happy about FedNow catching up to whatever BRICS is developing. So there is a lot of incentive for well-heeled people and governments to spread psyops, fear, and doubt about it.

Don’t fall for it.

Finally, to be clear: I am 100% against a U.S. digital currency. Don’t need it, don’t want it. I know where to find Bitcoin if I ever feel the urge. Fortunately, I have serious doubts whether they could even pull it off. And I’m not even sure a digital currency would be Constitutional, but that’s a different post.

It’s just that FedNow is NOT a digital currency, and I’m pretty sure they built it to counter BRICS. So.