Loading ...PAAS
for JSKauai et all.
I kept this PAAS simple here as charted from 2016. Behold the Blue uptrend line which BO-DOWN august-2022. From then on (and still) PAAS is in some type of BT by setting a BEAR FLAG. There seems to be two Bear Flags; either BLUE or RED. The RED Bear Flag is similar as my formerly presented SILJ chart. Like SILJ … PAAS did a perfect BT (yesterday) on the RED Bear Flag from below. Let’s see if (both SILJ and) PAAS can close this week (tomorrow) above the W-EMA(30) @ 16.36.
Set-up is Bearish for Silver stocks … as it seems to me. But show me you PAAS-Bull-chart to show me otherwise.
ADDED Upperline on the chart setting a FLAG which BO-DOWN.
IMO.DYODD.
Technical analysis is useful but not the end all. It WILL fail you from time to time. I think the extreme bearishness we saw the last 2 weeks of June over rides the marginal bear flag that is depicted. Let’s face it virtually ever low price print on a chart suggests price will go lower. That’s TA failing you.
I had not seen such bearishness in gold and silver since Jan 2016. That is virtually every last bull or gold bug remaining in the remnant felt that it had one more down leg to go before reversing higher. That was the signal in my view.
Respect Plunger. And indeed few things have changed over the course of last few years having mayor impact.
#1 the PM-bull which have or should have started since 2016 failed to most and for sure did not follow through; wjich I guess is what you see and refer to;
#2 for sure TA fails time to time as nobody knows for sure except we all read our own ‘tea leaves’ for which I use TIME by CYCLES;
#3 The effect of last 3-4 years made so many people worldwide depressed and broke that either there is no more interest in playing the PM-stock-bull which ONLY seems to fail (last many many many (30) years) nor there is no money left to spare, to play this PM-stock-game and let it run as funds become limited as well limited time for the trade-span-time as these funds are ‘needed for daily life’ and as for people cannot hold on to more stress watching price-tickers cause … no sure thing as a PM-stock-trade.
#4 Such bring us a sure thing for PM-stocks … the ‘cure for low prices is lower prices’… a phrase I learned from you.
Just and only #3 is somewhat mis-priced in this PM-market.
Sir Nightingale,
Granted that this has been a tough year, and the charts are foretelling bearishness.
I just wish I had held SNWGF longer.
No matter how small the win, I’m happy to share it here:
Realized Sale Activity Summary 01/01/2022 – 12/31/2022
SecuritySecurity Name | Symbol Units Orig Cost WS Adj Cost Basis Proceeds ST Gain/Loss LT Gain/Loss % Change
SNOWLINE GOLD CORP (SNWGF) 3,098 $1,310.18 $1,310.18 $3,221.86 $1,911.68 145.91%
TOTAL (1 security) $1,310.18 $1,310.18 $3,221.86 $1,911.68 145.91%
Realized Sale Activity Summary 01/01/2023 – 7/19/2023
SecuritySecurity Name | Symbol Units Orig Cost WS Adj Cost Basis Proceeds ST Gain/Loss LT Gain/Loss % Change
SNOWLINE GOLD CORP (SNWGF) 250 $100.91 $100.91 $460.51 $359.60 356.36%
TOTAL (1 security) $100.91 $100.91 $460.51 $359.60 356.36%
GL
Sir Nightingale,
Nothing “seemed” wrong when you were bullish on DXY in this post.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=566863
Please see my “height of amateurishness comment” here: https://goldtadise.com/?p=566863#comment-113939
But what happened since is for ALL OF US to digest and process.
Respectfully,
GL
Oh BTW I picked up a major position in PAAS at that moment as I regard PAAS as one of the best stocks for the bull market to own. Its price reflects extreme out of favor sentiment from multiple quarters of disappointing earnings and operational results. Therefore it’s a turnaround opportunity. But they will be producing over 1m Oz of gold. and 20m Oz of silver. Once Escobal comes back on line it will be 40m Oz Ag. Once the bull market gets rolling and investors are willing to pay for Blue Sky Navidad will offer it. None of these are priced in the stock presently. IMO if one is willing to hold for 5-8 years he will be sitting on a $100+ stock. It’s market cap is now $5b. Is it reasonable to see it around $30 someday? Absolutely!
Bookmarked this post, Sir Plunger.
Hope to see everyone around on July 20th, 2028, and discuss this call.
The greatest bull markets are born after climbing walls of worries.
GL
Oke. I get the potential that PAAS (and alike) become the new FANG type of stocks and we will see 100 tickets. But what if (IMO) … PAAS still can cut in HALF as for potential Halfway pattern (on this chart). The difference would be PAAS buying PAAS @ todays price @ 16 or potential @ 8. The difference is not only stress but also the multiplier be it 6.25X (16 to 100) or 12.5x (8 to 100).
Alternative … one keep on buying the dips (doubling down) while (IMO) price decline BUT then I refer to above statement made #3 and I must add an additional item which future seems unsure which is the future of the Stock Market in itself if they introduce CBDC and people are limited to use/own funds.
Indeed that is the math. Buy it for 50% cheaper and ones returns will be double that from buying here. I just don’t think one will be able to buy it at $8. The analogy is one is buying a beachball that is 6 feet under water as someone is standing on it.and thinking he can get it 12 feet underwater.
Even if one hired Yao Ming to stand on it… good luck!
Plunger, I echo your sentiment on PAAS and I am also very bullish on MAG. These two encompass the biggest holdings on my PM position. I also like AEM,SSRM,BTG(acquire from my shares of Sabina gs)and AG.
That’s $30b market cap someday.
PAAS failed precisely where it was expected to fail by not breaching above 16.89 during July. A penny or two more would have made all the difference. But it never got quite got there yet. So instead of turning the chart bullish we are seeing price pull back which tells me we are still in a corrective phase and not a breakout. Sorry to throw cold water on this subject but until we get that break we can’t call this one. On the other hand….the month is not over yet. There is still hope.
“we are still in a corrective phase and not a breakout”
Probably so.
Years ago, I posted a VLT wave count that off the 2011 high, expected a standard “zig-zag” ABC correction down for wave 4. That did not play out, but my colleague Sam instead calls for an ABCDE triangle that eats up time (two decades?), and investor mental energy, and goes mostly nowhere. He has us in the MIDDLE of that still. But $1045 gold and $9 silver would have been the lows for the metals in his scenario. Dilution means miners likely won’t adhere to that script, however.