Bitcoin Cracks Lower and Breaks the Chart…
I was working with a friend tonight trying to choose the reversal time and price for Bitcoin. All looked well. We selected the 4 hour bar as the tell and next the price point which could not be exceeded. But I had doubts. “Just wait” I told him. “This does not look quite right”. Naturally that comment was THE sell signal because what came next was a gut wrenching 2200 point vertical drop in three hourly bars. ….$#$%%#!!!!
The chart has now turned impulsively bearish. Bitcoin is a solid sell once its bounce (in progress) has completed.
My view is that Bitcoin is going down for the count and will retest near the lows of 20,000 so be prepared for losses if you are a bully holding for the big ride up and a moonshot. Its going to kick the arses of the HODLERS which is what any good trade should do to teach us once again that the majority MUST always be wrong.
Here is my one hour chart. Its the trade I foolishly missed for the record. The friend and I are aiming to sell the bounce in progress which will be judged by how far up the Fibbo ladder she climbs before exhaustion sets it. Stay tuned!
I track GBTC and not BTC.
The discount on GBTC makes them different.
But GBTC is monthly OB, without having crossed zero lines (upward) for several key indicators.
That makes it vulnerable to just what you suggest.
No sell signal at my end quite yet, but an ugly candle this week.
You really need to trade it as a currency to keep up with what its doing. Anything else is after the fact. Currency trading is not for the faint of heart though. This one is using 50 to one leverage as a minimum. So getting it wrong can be very costly very fast. Which is why I was relucatant to sell even though it was falling…..paranoia! LOL
BTC/GBTC has never been a trading vehicle for me.
I see BTC having potential primarily as a tool to navigate around capital controls should that become necessary.
GBTC will be a buy and hold proxy for when we make those new (and probably final) lows. Insurance against demise of $ as reserve currency.
See my POSTS form 1 week ago.
ETH
https://goldtadise.com/?p=574343
BTC
https://goldtadise.com/?p=574189