are going to be crucial.  I’ve maintained that the Sept. 24 lows in gold and silver would hold, and I still expect them to hold.   However, if they do make lower lows, I expect those lows to only be marginally below those of Sept. 24.

It could be that Chartmaster’s prediction of no real upward move until around Thanksgiving does play out.  I think the daily Ichimoku cloud is supportive of that prediction.  From a cycles perspective, I hate to say it but it would clean up the picture quite a bit if we actually did make a lower low.  Because if the Sept. 24 low holds it means that we have already chewed up 6 weeks of the intermediate cycle going sideways.  Such a shallow first daily cycle also establishes a shallow intermediate cycle trendline, which does not bode well for sustainable new highs.

Currently, I am somewhat undecided about whether this next intermediate move in the metals plays out as 1) another explosive leg higher (with a much higher high being made) or 2) as a long term consolidation out to summer 2021, which may play out as a giant triangle consolidation.  While I would obviously like to see the former and I am leaning that way as the likely outcome, gold miners, gold and silver are all still fairly extended relative to their 50 and 100 WMAs, and so I am open to all realistic scenarios.