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$1888 was the measured move objective for this move. According to Kitco prices we just saw $1991. I am happy to consider we have now seen a functional peak to this move. Close enough. Thinking we deserve a rest for a few weeks to reset.
It’s interesting – the GDX cup breakout targets $44-$45 if my memory serves me, and the bullish pennant suggests $54. I think a pause/pullback here could be fairly short (maybe a couple of weeks).
Price rules. All my stuff says stay out. Price says to get back in. I did.
How does price say to get back in? Isn’t the fact that it’s hitting an all time high tell you there might be a correction soon?
I have a 30 minute trading channel for GLD which has contained prices since June 08. On the 16th of July we violated the channel by a false breakout to the downside and then jumped back in the channel on the 20th of July. I got out yesterday because we were close to the top of that channel. Today we jumped out of the channel in a break out to the upside. In my experience I term this action an over throw when you violate the channel to the downside and then if you jump back in the channel it is very bullish and can in rare circumstances lead to the action today by breaking out. It gives you a clear stop to know if you are wrong.
I am mostly ignoring the actions of the gold stocks because they swing wildly while gold stays firm.
$1893 right now…
Looks like a run away impulse
Do we blow through or get rejected…(blow through)…
Sold half my miners, but thought I’d go for something pretty safe so I added most of that half to my KL. If it breaks out of the reverse head and shoulders, it will shoot up fast. It hasn’t taken the jump up like other miners, so it’s prime on a move like this in gold. Plus, I can just stick a trailing stop at some point in case gold moves down in earnest.
$1896…
Look at those wonderful charts of yesteryear Patrick posted of the 79 run. At the time it made no sense. There was no fundamental reason for the metals to run like they did. But they did.
I chickened out and sold back the KL. Seems like this is the peak for a bit. It’s a gut feeling, which is almost always wrong.
Likewise, I recently let go of 60% of my non-spock miners. When the ATH of $1,918 breaks, miners’ and ETF response to gold price (even if it continues within trajectory channel) could well be muted, if not falls. BMGI vs gold and silver 05-1978 to 01-1979.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/mining-stocks-vs-gold-and-silver/
At this phase (approach to the ATH), most of the (short term) miner gains were achieved in the run-up to the new high, not after.
Has anyone noticed the front month gold futures contract in backwardation again?
Highest Kitco got was $1898. First run at $1900 a fail. If we are peaking here, gold does not seem interested in calling it quits just yet. That $1898 MATCHES the August futures price. Dead heat.
I would be happier with the gold prices if the prices of more gold companies (ranging from producers through tiny explorers) were consistently better today. It’s not as though stock prices are crashing outside the gold company world forcing people to sell stocks.
(Didn’t keep me from possibly overcommitting myself by adding a little to a small explorer-developer I’ve had for a long time today. Since no one knowledgeable recommends it I don’t know whether it’s any good or not. I have probably just crashed the market with my purchase.)
Shares are exhausted…I agree this run needs to consolidate for a bit.
I’m going to hedge the Seniors but let the micros do what they will.
Tricky stuff .
We may all be wrong !!
We’re all following essentially the same charts…everyone on one side of the boat means…all the big players are using TA as well. So, with gold up $25 and the shares stagnant…even declining…Plunger most likely is right. Bail time.
Now backtesting the breakout trying to get people to sell.
It held. Magical.
To me.
Depending on line width 176.90 is the channel line.
added. I am wild and crazy.
Was that test of weekly break out gap?