Bunch O’ Charts and Once Again My Take…
Sir Schism’s find above on XAU held.
After tricking me to go long gold miners for a bit, Dust is looking more like it had just a false breakdown below.
GDXJ’s breakdown backtest above held.
GDXJ below is pretty neat. The Red parabolic line connects 4 points without penetrations and with great accuracy. Always stinks to see it in hindsight…
GDX breakdown backtest also held above.
Below, Gold Log is back at its major neckline:
Gold weekly log above. The blue arrows show where I think the real neckline resistance is. Back down to the significant major bearish neckline now.
Silver monthly log below did backtest and is resuming down so far.
Silver Monthly linear also below its neck.
Dollar below. Yep, I believe it’s still going to new highs above 160 before the end of 2023.
Euro Monthly above backtested and tested significant rails above.
Below the Yen is forming its nice H&S pattern.
Both I believe will see major plummets as the dollar soars.
Above: False breakout up on the GDXJ: GLD?
Dow Monthly linear is so pretty below. The most pretty chart though is Sir Schism’s Dow long term log with the parallel parabolas which I still believe will hit 100,000 by November 2023.
Nasdaq long term linear above.
Russel Weekly below:
TLT (long terms bonds) weekly log above and linear below. Staying in uptrend meaning lower rates if continues.
Here’s a trade setup if anyone wants it. Oil above is backtesting its breakdown. I believe it will now fall much further.
Below is a 2x short and then a 3x short oil etf. Both appear to be double bottoming. Set your stop at a comfortable position and maybe give this a try?
Overall the charts are telling me the same thing they have since the end of 2016.
-Dollar is going to rocket higher especially as we have higher rates than the rest of the world.
-Opposing currencies are going to drop significantly especially because some even have negative interest rates.
-Money is going to funnel into everything United States as the rest of the world really suffers.
-The United States trade issues will become less imbalanced. The rest of the world will buy more United States products and manufacturing will return to the United States as the rest of the world has stagnating growth and maybe even decreasing manufacturing.
-U.S. Major Stock markets are going much higher.
-Money pouring into the everything dollar will drive rates even lower.
-Commodities against the dollar will fall significantly.
-Gold, which I entertained as going higher with the dollar, I again believe will fall with everything else.
Sorry Gold bugs. I know that’s not popular.
Gold will have its day again but not yet. After the dollar skyrockets, at the detriment of the rest of the world, there will then be calls for a global gold backed currency that even Ron Paul called for in the past… we won’t see Mad Max… sorry guys… I know that’s terrible news… 🙂
p.s. there was no collusion. Wait to see what happens next… going to be insane what you’re about to see!
Well Looks like the Papa Grizzly Bear has awoke from a long Hibernation , and he has a voracious apatite !
Happy Spring Sir Chuck.
Some interesting and provocative charts there
You were staying on point so well …until your last line
🙂
Haha… can never help myself… lol. I’m a moderator’s nightmare wherever I post 🙂
Yes but you’re OUR Nightmare
Feel free…its a long weekend
Nice work Chuck… after many many moons of consideration and thought I’m finally in the deflation camp. But I think we get a big move up to put in a 4th point in a lot of charts. I think the miners need a higher perch from which to fall from….something like this- https://www.tradingview.com/x/cyxi8Uv4/ in gdx. Charts still under construction.
Well that would just mess with our heads even more! Ikes.
yep, I have a lot of things hitting in 2023. But first everything is aligning for the 2020 election. I think they are going to run up the market hard into oct and then tank it …so it will be correcting hard during the trump campaign and into the election. Gold will make its move during this time from Oct to 2021 inauguration…heard it here first.
Good charts. I specifically don’t see how the dollar ever hits 160? Maybe 100, maybe 105, maybe 110, sure.
Some catastrophic event could drive it to 160, but I don’t think it is a world any of us would want to live in (of course unless all one holds is dollars). It would destroy the U.S. gov’t, entitlement programs, etc. The FED will do everything in their power to prevent that level of deflation across markets.
We’re taught deflation is bad. Is it really if stock markets are going up, and prices of the inputs of goods are going down? If food costs go down? If it costs less for us to fuel our vehicles and heat our homes? That’s bad?
Opps I said “we’re taught inflation is bad”. Changed it to deflation.
Nice work Chuck. Alot to think about. No one believes deflation is possible, thats what makes it possible.
I think we’ll be shocked how well deflation raises our purchasing power and quality of life…
Also with low interest rates at the same time? Housing prices will stay elevated most likely in this scenario…
Will be Nirvana economy until it ends… then? You’ll want to be in gold…
I AGREE 100%…I never understood how Deflation is bad.
The FED fears it like the PLAGUE…if they don’t get their 2% Inflation every year they get very upset.
The 2% is THEIR commission I guess.
Prices of goods we NEED dropping ? Bring it ON !
remember the saying “Sound as a Dollar ? ” …
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/sound_as_a_dollar
“The FED fears it like the PLAGUE…if they don’t get their 2% Inflation every year they get very upset.”
Deflation helps Everyday Joe. But it kills the value of the collateral that banks hold against the loans they’ve made.
You know that “Benjamin Graham and Dodd” margin of safety?
Well, that’s what the Fed wants (for its banker owners) and so their inflation target of 2% PA is all about that wish.
Agree! It worked great in the early 19th and 20th centuries!