If You Are Bullish On The Dollar
It’s worth reading this https://www.fgmr.com/heading-toward-the-tipping-point/
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Thanks Northstar….well explained by James Turk
My question would be…what is the EU Insolvency Ratio ? Japanese ?
It seems to me ALL Fiat currencies are in the same boat…
So why watch the US Dollar ?
They will ALL become insolvent …..and Gold will not !
Gold wont rise per se but its value vs ALL fiat will increase by default
We have been expecting this out come for decades…can it be more decades ?
IF ALL the Monetary Scientists continue to do what it takes to ” hold it together”….I guess it could
It’s relevant in terms of the Dollar Index. The Euro makes up a large part of the Dollar Index and 25 out of the 28 countries in the EU have a better debt to GDP ratio than the US and 5 out of the 6 currencies making up the US Dollar Index are also from countries with a better debt to GDP ratio than the US. The point is that the US and its Dollar is becoming the stinkiest fish in the pile. All eyes are on the Dollar because it has reserve currency status. The economics which are backing it are worsening, and put it amongst the very worst on the planet.
That’s good information thanks NS
“IF ALL the Monetary Scientists continue to do what it takes to ” hold it together”….I guess it could”
Yeah, I’m with you. There’s this saying which I’ll probably corrupt. “People go bankrupt very slowly, then all of a sudden.”
Probably the same with the dollar. Where are we on that scale?
(Silly Romans and Byzantines et.al. They obviously didn’t know that unbacked currencies were as easy to foist onto people as any other kind. Could have saved themselves a lot of bother.)
The one thing that nobody considers but is very important IMO. NOBODY (who has any sanity) , on the whole planet , wants this fiat empire to crumble. Therefore EVERYONE ( all 7.7 Billion of us ) will keep playing the game …no matter what.)
Hear hear! Couldn’t agree with you more. Who wouldn’t desire stability? However, it’s like war. No matter how badly one doesn’t want to see it, making believe it’s not on the horizon is willful ignorance. Worrying about the currency isn’t fun. It’s a burden. But we happen to live at a time when the world’s currency regime seems to once again be in transition. Can’t do anything about that.
Here’s a good article on the dollar – a bit old, but the principles are all still the same.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-short-dollar-the-debt-bubble/
Yes but written in 2013.
Still valid ?
I dunno
The proof is in the pudding. We keep setting yearly highs month after month after month. Too many analysts focus on only one face of a multi-dimensional equation. Yes, debt is one of the faces, but so is the fact that the dollar is a safehaven for the rest of the world. Global Post Bubble Contraction, politics, trade, etc. The list goes on and on. All fiat currencies are doomed in the long run, but one can go broke waiting decades for the inevitable to happen. When the dollar falls out of its century long uptrend channel, that will be the time to start worrying. For now, the trend is your friend.
I would also recommend Plunger’s Post Bubble Contraction essay posted in the side bar to anyone who has not yet read it. It does a great job of explaining the dollar’s strength and why it will continue for the foreseeable future.
Not sure what you mean by ‘it’s century long uptrend channel’ Ken. The US Dollar index began in March 1973. Its made nothing but lower lows and lower highs ever since.
It is in the article I referenced above.
Exactly my point. The US Dollar index pre 1973 is nothing to do with the post 1973 Index. You’re comparing apples with pears.
Yes, and the dollar is still sitting on top of a double bottom at an intermediate term basis.