Loading ...Final Flush Or Complete Collapse ?
This is a huge chart pattern, over many years. I don’t believe we’re going to see a complete PM collapse in the face of a rising gold cycle and falling dollar cycle. Starting to feel like I’m very much in the minority, but this is how I’ve been seeing it for a while. $1180 to $1195, followed by a rally. Could we go lower ? Possibly, looking at the chart below. If this is simply a long and drawn out bottoming process (huge base forming within a huge bull flag), the eventual breakout could be enormous. I’m not sure I’d get excited just yet though. We have a 3 year cycle low due at the end of the year. I’d favour a rally to the upper resistance around $1335 over the next few weeks, into September and maybe early October. A higher low should follow around the end of the year. It’s looking increasingly likely that 2019 is when the fireworks could happen.
There are 2 main, alternative scenarios 1) We crash and burn, or 2) We blast much higher, much sooner. I’d rate my favoured scenario above at about 75% likelihood, and alternative 1 at 5% and alternative 2 at 20%. That’s how I’m seeing it at the moment.
I hope you are right. We need to keep optimism here.
SGR keeps bouncing higher.
Haven’t commented in a while NS but I’m watching with you intently. Thank you for your posts. Just wanted you to know.
Sorry. Reread your post and am a bit confused. Are favoring a move to about 1180 then a move higher to around 1330 in September followed by a higher lower to year end and THEN a big move higher in 2019? If so, where do you place that high low and do you have a target for 2019? Thanks NS.
Hi Gallo, nice to hear from you. Yes, after the current ‘flush’ which should be over within a week, I’d be looking for a strong bounce to the $1335 region by September/early October. The 3 year cycle low at the end of this year should give us a higher low (higher than this current one). Using my chart above, $1130 is possible now, and $1170 at the end of the year. I’d be surprised if it went as low as that, but this is a hugely important turning point (if I’m right), so perhaps we need to prepare ourselves for some scary price action here. Assuming we don’t break the upper resistance line around $1330 to $1340 on this log chart this year, I would be looking for a breakout and reverse symmetry move up in 2019 taking us to between $1600 and $1800 within 12 months.
Very clear. Thanks again. Best. Here in western NY, hottest summer in 30 years. Was I Italy for two weeks where it was in the mid to upper 90’s everyday with sun. Is this a new pattern and is it likely to stay for both summer and winter months?
The USD is on calendar day 35 (13 Aug) and may have hosted a DCH in which case it will now move lower to host a DCL in 10+ days time (say 23 Aug)
Because this daily cycle was right translated and NOT likely to fail then there will be another daily cycle before the USD hosts an ICL in 6-8 weeks time.
Normally to host an ICL this next daily cycle should be left translated and fail.
These are the conditions required for gold to move higher.
The AUD is on calendar day 42 and therefore in the timing band to host a DCL
This week is week 36 for the AUD which places it well & truly in the timing band to host an ICL
If the AUD hosts a DCL it will almost certainly be an ICL.
The AUD will more than likely host an ICL when the USD hosts a DCH and gold an ICL
GDX is on calendar day 46 and therefore in the timing band to host a DCL
This week is week 27 for GDX which places it in the timing band to host an ICL
If GDX hosts a DCL then it will more than likely be an ICL
GDX will more than likely host an ICL when the USD hosts a DCH and the AUD an ICL
Aug is month 6 for the USD since it hosted a YCL on 16 Feb 2018
At 6 months it increases the probability that it will be a right translated monthly cycle.
So once it hosts an ICL in say early Oct then we will need to be very observant of the next weekly cycle to check whether it moves higher than it’s current high (96.45) thereby extending, and ensuring, a right translated monthly cycle.
The key issue here Northstar is this…
By making a new monthly high in month 6 it almost guarantees that 16 Feb was an early 3 year low, the 4th since the 15 year cycle began in early 2008.
IF that is the case then there are years of downside for the USD until the 15 year cycle ends around 2023
So in a broader sense we are moving closer & closer to the 3 year cycle high before it rolls over into the final 15 year cycle low.
The monthly cycle from the May 2016 3 year low peaked in month 8 and since then the USD has been making lower highs and lower lows.
The higher the USD moves here the more difficult it is for it to host a higher ICH (weekly cycle high) during the next weekly cycle.
A break lower here to a clear & distinct ICL is good and eases the parameters for a swing higher.
A final flush on/near a New Moon is good news.
Thank you very much Northstar and Norvast for the excellent info and discussion. It’s great that Norvast’s dollar prognostication still supports Northstar’s view of where gold is likely headed in the near future. The stars continue to align.
Thanks CT. I see many reasons for this to be a ‘final flush’, but it pays to be aware of other, very low probability outcomes. With the Turkish contagion spreading to South America it’s not inconceivable that we face some kind of global financial event in the near future.
Global climate trends suggest a steady warming, rising sea levels and changes to rainfall distribution and patterns as the jet stream is disrupted. More extreme weather events are likely.