We have a poster here named “Russian”

He is a lurker mostly but once in a while he posts a gem in a comment

This Comment NEEDs to be on a front line Post…Some real mindbending insights here…thanks Russian


4. May 13, 2017 – 11:23 am at 11:23 am (Edit)

I’ll make two contradictory arguments (regarding gold’s prospects) just for entertainment sake. This is not my original thoughts. Just summarising different people ideas.


Gold is the only element in periodic table defies entropy. On an atomic level, it resists interacting with other elements. Ancient knew that all along using gold as a medium of exchange throughout millennia. Not to mention the fact that gold was created in a collision of two neutron stars. But that’s existential and irrelevant.

Antifragile is Nasim Taleb concept. Opposite of fragile is not robust. Which is counterintuitive and hard to relate to the physical world, but makes sense. Something that benefits from out of normal distribution move (black swan, fat tail event) is antifragile. And there is no way around of fat tail event. Black swans can’t be predicted only experienced.

Besides the risk of fat tail event, there is mean reversion. Something of smaller magnitude. And we are stretched for it both ways – price and time… So, it is coming.
Being long volatility is the only way to protect yourself.
That’s what gold miners ultimately do.


Bitcoin will succeed due to a network effect – sustainable parabola if you will. With all implications of that. The more use cases come on line for bitcoin in next two years – more users it attracts, the bigger market cap, the more talents it sucks in and so on. Presumably, all competitors will be ported into bitcoin because of that. Presumably, hard fork, if occurs, will cause correction or bear market. But won’t be a threat to the existence of bitcoin. Will the younger generations find a safe haven currency in bitcoin at the expense of gold ?

Machine deep learning. Software writes software.

Antiaging pill goes on human trial.

Cold fusion. Breakthrough in 2015. Now building real size model for testing. https://trialphaenergy.com/company/

Any of it or all of it together have potential to be a black swan to the upside. Yes, fat tail works both ways, sometimes you get outsized moves up or down…

Unthinkable is possible. Embrace uncertainty.

Forgot quantum computing https://www.dwavesys.com/quantum-computing


FGC comment…wow eh ?