Loading ...Market Concerns – EW
The author’s CONCERNS (not predictions) are laid out at comment 1, along with a link
And as usual, I recommend reviewing relevant comments to the X post for feedback on it.
This is Situational Awareness, given what we’ve all read and known about the Everything Bubble.
NB: 150 plus year chart with SuperCycle count. LOG SCALE !!!!
https://x.com/TriggerTrades/status/1909035088014192831/photo/1
{slightly edited to meet pedro’s expectations for proper spelling, grammar and exposition.}
This projection shows $SPX completing a GRAND SUPER CYCLE of the overall impulse from the 1871 origin to the 2025 peak.
This suggests we may be heading toward the GREATEST STOCK MARKET CRASH OF ALL TIME with the 2020 low being the BARE MINIMUM target. [Zeberg is calling for largest since 1929, but NOT YET]
The damage could extend far beyond that with the 2009 low being the WORST CASE SCENARIO. It is so bearish, I cannot project it out.
How likely is this? Predicting a crash of this magnitude is obviously not easy, but unfortunately, this ultimate time frame wave count is exceptionally clean, abiding by highly standard Elliott Wave fib measurements with price confined perfectly within a channel.
You can literally put this in a textbook to describe what an impulse wave typically looks like.
I will share my analysis of the more “conservative” projection I’ve been expecting, but make no mistake
—THIS SCENARIO CANNOT BE IGNORED.
“the 2009 low being the WORST CASE SCENARIO”
If we completed five cycles up from 1871, then EW calls for a “correction” back to the zone of the last fourth wave of next lower degree.
And that would indeed be under SPX 1000.
And that SHOULD take rates to where the 30 year bond YIELD might make a double bottom.
As Bessent has said/implied, the goal may be to crash Wall St while keeping Main St humming along.
That would be AUDACIOUS.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock futures trading suspended due to circuit breaker.
Regarding the long term count … others may have other criticisms
but the last five waves in Cycle V look problematic.
First, wave 1 inside it reflects an extended wave 1.
Usually, that’s wave 3.
But in EW, waves 2 and 4 are supposed to behave differently. They alternate.
Fast versus slow. Steep vs shallow. Simple vs complex. Here they don’t.
SO … its POSSIBLE perhaps likely that we still have 5 of V left.
And where’s the Advance Decline line divergence?