looks like my hopium-fueled dreams are being dashed today.  I said if we get a weekly close below silver’s 50 week EMA (currently at $30.18) my medium term silver thesis would be cooked and that is exactly what it looks like could happen by the close today.  Even if we rally a few cents to close above that MA, does anyone really think this week’s giant red candle will be the end of it?

Credit to Highroller and others that were cautioning a few weeks ago about a major top.  Looking back to what happened in 2020-21, I thought it was just too simple and too similar to play out the same way, but I guess not.

As for what might mark a bottom for silver: as always it’s probably best to look to gold or even the stock market for timing cues.  JRB has been predicting that silver wouldn’t really explode higher until gold next tests its 200 DMA.  Gold’s 200 DMA is at $2656 and rising sharply.  Gold has a tendency to wipe out C waves entirely, so perhaps it meets the 200 DMA at $2800 or thereabouts in a couple of months.  There is also a thesis that silver won’t rally until the stock market finds a nominal low–who knows where or when that will be except the Fed.

The price of silver, as we know, can literally be taken anywhere in the short run.  So I am not even going to begin to guess what the low price will be.  FWIW, the 400 DMA is at $27.79.  The 14 day RSI is now oversold, so perhaps a bounce will come next week.