If it was weak, I would tell you it was weak. If it was a construct that contained dangerous consequences, I would warn you of them. If this trade/tariff regime was going to be harmful to the economy I would say so.
This global trade reset (as outlined) doesn’t create doom – not even close, it creates discipline.
What we’re seeing isn’t a reckless trade war. It’s a strategic recalibration targeting the structural imbalances that hollowed out American industry. The tariffs are reciprocal, calculated based on actual trade deficits. That’s not random or punitive—it’s mathematically fair.
And they’re targeted: this isn’t a broad tax on everything. The focus is on finished goods, not the raw materials and components we need to build here. That protects domestic production and supply chains—not disrupts them.
Some worry this will destabilize capital markets. But this plan doesn’t touch interest rates, credit channels, or core financial plumbing. It doesn’t burden U.S. manufacturers or trigger input price spirals. Quite the opposite—it creates revenue and predictability; two things capital markets thrive on.
It also closes loopholes like de minimis, reins in corporate arbitrage, and forces trading partners to play fair. If that creates discomfort for companies built on outsourcing and imbalance, that’s not doom. That’s a long-overdue correction.
This isn’t the collapse of global trade. It’s the end of surrender and the beginning of mutual accountability.
Hans Mahncke@HansMahncke
·
11h
Everyone has an opinion on Trump’s tariffs, but the simple truth is that no one knows how this will play out.
What we do know is that Trump saw the problem decades ago. The international trade system, set up in 1947, was supposed to be reciprocal. In the past few decades, it has morphed into a completely lopsided arrangement, with China at its center. That’s thanks to Bill Clinton, who thought letting them in was a stroke of genius. Since then, China has drained every trading “partner” it touches through a complete lack of reciprocity, state-owned enterprises masquerading as private businesses, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and more.
Now, the system is like a rotting house. It’s falling apart, but we’re still living in it, so tearing it down isn’t an option. But someone had to act because it couldn’t just continue as it was. Trump has now grabbed a hammer and started knocking down walls. How it all ends remains to be seen.
https://x.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1907752790379934093
If it was weak, I would tell you it was weak. If it was a construct that contained dangerous consequences, I would warn you of them. If this trade/tariff regime was going to be harmful to the economy I would say so.
This global trade reset (as outlined) doesn’t create doom – not even close, it creates discipline.
What we’re seeing isn’t a reckless trade war. It’s a strategic recalibration targeting the structural imbalances that hollowed out American industry. The tariffs are reciprocal, calculated based on actual trade deficits. That’s not random or punitive—it’s mathematically fair.
And they’re targeted: this isn’t a broad tax on everything. The focus is on finished goods, not the raw materials and components we need to build here. That protects domestic production and supply chains—not disrupts them.
Some worry this will destabilize capital markets. But this plan doesn’t touch interest rates, credit channels, or core financial plumbing. It doesn’t burden U.S. manufacturers or trigger input price spirals. Quite the opposite—it creates revenue and predictability; two things capital markets thrive on.
It also closes loopholes like de minimis, reins in corporate arbitrage, and forces trading partners to play fair. If that creates discomfort for companies built on outsourcing and imbalance, that’s not doom. That’s a long-overdue correction.
This isn’t the collapse of global trade. It’s the end of surrender and the beginning of mutual accountability.
This is good. Very, Very good.
and Sundance posts the tariff rate formula … sourced from USTR
https://x.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1907711166794883200
https://t.co/RKC0gxfeHF
LOL … this epitomizes the theoretical world I abandoned in 1988.
It may be the best analysis possible, but it still deserves mockery.
the best comment yet
Hans Mahncke@HansMahncke
·
11h
Everyone has an opinion on Trump’s tariffs, but the simple truth is that no one knows how this will play out.
What we do know is that Trump saw the problem decades ago. The international trade system, set up in 1947, was supposed to be reciprocal. In the past few decades, it has morphed into a completely lopsided arrangement, with China at its center. That’s thanks to Bill Clinton, who thought letting them in was a stroke of genius. Since then, China has drained every trading “partner” it touches through a complete lack of reciprocity, state-owned enterprises masquerading as private businesses, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and more.
Now, the system is like a rotting house. It’s falling apart, but we’re still living in it, so tearing it down isn’t an option. But someone had to act because it couldn’t just continue as it was. Trump has now grabbed a hammer and started knocking down walls. How it all ends remains to be seen.
Great Stuff pedro
My uninformed opinion… I think it all ends Well for the USA …and ultimately the World
There will be new fair trade ( not free trade ) deals negotiated with urgency .
Notice already Countries are rushing to remove all existing Tariffs on US imports
Notice nobody ( except China and Carney …but I repeat myself ) is claiming they will increase Tariffs on US Imports to counter