Monthly chart.       Notes from Armstrong:

If tariffs become more widespread the inflationary effects will cause the affordability of items to rise. No one can afford to repair their homes when lumber costs are soaring. Builders are forced to raise costs on new housing starts, for example, when materials rise in expense. The issue here is not the demand for cheap Chinese goods but the demand for essentials like energy, steel, etc.

Auto prices are at an all-time high. We steered away from pushed EVs on the public but are refusing to permit cheaper Chinese autos in our country. Autos are being targeted hard by tariffs and manufacturing costs have becoming astronomical. China is able to produce cheap autos because manufacturing costs are far less.

Treasuries impact mortgage rates and are largely driven by supply and demand for US government debt. When inflation rises due to tariffs, bondholders demand higher yields to offset the decreased purchasing power. This leads to declining bond prices and rising interest rates across the board, including for mortgages.

As for wages, businesses will face higher operating costs due to tariffs and have less revenue to pass on to employees. Worse, businesses seeking to avoid reciprocal tariffs may simply leave the US.