Goldtent TA Paradise

July got exciting for bears, right? But only briefly … well …

1. pedro_deleon says:

   December 23, 2024 - 8:26 pm at 8:26 pm

   ET

   “Why have all the news stories gone now about how this will disrupt the stock market?
   Yet back in my Aug18th post which you can view at this vvvLINKvvv, I said it was possible the Japanese Yen was making a contracting ending diagonal, and it may not have finished yet.
   Here is an update of that chart.”

   https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/08/what-do-you-yen-for.html

2. Fullgoldcrown says:

   December 23, 2024 - 9:14 pm at 9:14 pm

   pedro I dont think anyone here has a clue what this chart purports for the Stock market

   let me Guess..IF the Yen starts to rise thats bad for the Stock market

   I don’t know what the yen cary trade really is ..but that is what is implied here is my half assed guess…yen UP Stocks Down ?

   • pedro_deleon says:

     December 23, 2024 - 9:21 pm at 9:21 pm

     Yup … late July .. pull up any chart … esp the VIX.

     “yen cary trade” the whole world borrows in yen, knowing (since 1990) that rates be near zero AND the yen will ‘always’ be cheaper tomorrow when payback (rollover) is due. Its the funding source for global debt. They are the bankers’ bitch.

3. Plunger says:

   December 23, 2024 - 9:23 pm at 9:23 pm

   Here is the risk. Another way to view this is the USDJPY relationship. Known as the Yen carry trade. Since for the past 30 years the Yen has low interest rates and has depreciated it is the preferred currency to borrow in exchange it into USD then speculate with those dollars. It has low carrying costs and when it is time to pay back the loan the currency has depreciated so its cheaper. Easy peezy for the Hedge fund speculators.

   But here is the risk for 2025. The Yen reverses and gets stronger which is represented by it falling in the below chart. The critical level is said to be 140. If it drops below that it will require leveraged trades to start unwinding and the everything bubble begins to implode.

   So watch this relationship:

   https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19820861275&a=1864498698&listNum=53

4. Fullgoldcrown says:

   December 23, 2024 - 9:43 pm at 9:43 pm

   Thanks Plunger and pedro

   That really clears things up

   Here’s my version

   https://schrts.co/usrjqTkE

   • pedro_deleon says:

     December 23, 2024 - 9:52 pm at 9:52 pm

     That works too. I won’t wait for 140 though.
     I’ll watch for the upper tag (overthrow?) and reversal, since this should trigger a five alarm siren.

5. pedro_deleon says:

   December 23, 2024 - 9:44 pm at 9:44 pm

   Two chart details getting my attention.
   FXY monthly is just a hair above its 2sd lower band. It hasn’t broken below since the waterfall move in 2022.
   Also my MACD, which was -300 after that waterfall, is now at -45 even on the lower yen $ (per FXY). Big time divergence.
   MEANING, the monthly MACD is just a twitch now from flipping positive. (LT bullish)
   I think we’re several months away still. February gets interesting.

6. Plunger says:

   December 23, 2024 - 9:58 pm at 9:58 pm

   I would agree, give it Feb/Mar