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A few days ago Pedro reproduced a silver chart for us ‘tenters’ that showed a projected negative silver trend. He shows his lack of understanding the current silver market by copying a chart based on Elliott Wave analysis.
Elliott Wave analysis ‘works’ by ‘fitting’ a pattern over current market behavior and then projecting 3 up waves and 2 down waves. The current crop of Elliott wavers keeps worrying about a coming wave #4 which they expect will be a scary dip and then they promise us that #5 will be a super ‘upward move’.
Elliott Wave analysis works sometimes in a sideways market, but silver at the moment is not in a sideways market, but in a ‘mother of all bull markets!’
Elliott Wavers may remember one of their guru’s – Robert Prechter. When gold first peaked above $1,000.00 an ounce he told his followers that gold would retreat to $500 before it would resume its upward trend. To the best of my knowledge Robert never retreated from that position. For the record gold never dipped anywhere close to the $500 level!
Silver has been in short supply for the past 4 years and at the Comex there are an estimated 400 ounces of ‘paper silver’ for every ounce of ‘real ARGENT’
Here is a current quote on silver demand, courtesy the Silver Academy: “As the world races towards a greener future, an unexpected casualty may be emerging – silver. This precious metal, long valued for its luster and conductivity, is now facing unprecedented demand that threatens to deplete global inventories by the end of 2025. The culprit? The explosive growth of solar energy, coupled with increasing industrial applications most notably aerospace, military and silver zinc batteries.
China, the world’s largest solar market, is leading the charge. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association projects a staggering 260 gigawatts of new photovoltaic installations in the country alone. When we consider that each gigawatt requires approximately 700,000 ounces of silver, the scale of demand becomes clear. But China is just the tip of the iceberg.”
Next is a silver chart from my latest market report dated Friday December 13th. (The full report can be found at my website peterdegraaf.com).
As I mentioned in the report, silver is rising steadily within the blue channel. The current rate of ascent is 34%/yr. The brown arrow points to a breakout at the 50 day moving average, which is currently being back tested. This test could take silver back a bit further, even to the red 200 day moving average, without ruining the rising trend. A rise above the blue arrow sets up a target at the green arrow. The moving averages are in positive alignment while rising (very bullish).
=èPlease do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions!
Peter Degraaf owned 4 coin stores during the 1980 bull market. Since selling his stores he has written articles for Kitco.com, Gold-Eagle.com, Goldseek.com, Silverseek.com, Freebuck.com, Financialsense.com, Marketoracle.com, 321energy.com, Silveraxis.com, Goldstockbull.com, and Investors-Digest of Canada. His website peterdegraaf.com (where market reports are provided free of charge), recently passed the number of 500,000 visits.
Lastly I want to take this opportunity to show my respect for Chartsmaster who graciously shares his excellent market knowledge to the ‘tenters’ – keep it up sir!
Thanks for the kind words and your objective, thorough presentation of the current silver setup.
Thanks for the post.
Presently, there is the availability of obtaining large quantities of Silver Bars or coins at Dealers. Buying 10,000 oz of Silver is not a problem if you spread your purchases among various products. Even 20,000 oz is likely possible but I never asked about that amount.
Great to hear from you Gold Relic
When You registered to post a long while ago I was looking forward to your work
Regards
Fully
PS don’t sell pedro short…he’s a cautious trader and a good one. 🙂
GR – everyone has different skillsets at the tent. We are all here to learn, teach and help one another. Your comments about Pedro (shows his lack of understanding the current silver market by copying a chart based on Elliott Wave analysis) are uncalled for, unnecessary and unhelpful. His money costs as much as yours does — and the techniques he chooses are his business!
Personally, I look forward to hearing many different analysis techniques — yours included!
Regarding Prechter I might as well pile in. BTW I have always found value in his social analysis and his work in general. But wave counts that’s another story. Here’s the story. It was fall 2003 at the New Orleans investment conference. Gold was at about $380 and we were all lathered up us gold bugs. Prechter gave his talk and put a wet blanket over us. Gold would go no further. In fact it would first have to dip to $180 before a bull market could begin to fulfill his chart principles. He was steadfast. To me at least this was obviously wrong. Well we were right. Sometimes these gurus can be blockheads.
I like to get the feel of current sentiment.
Presently, there appears to be very little interest in Ag and Au except in the usual places we inhabit on-line. From a supply and demand point of view, investing in Ag makes sense long-term. The introduction of Paper contracts has distorted the Ag mkt over the years to the level of craziness. As to supply, the dealers see an increase in product sold to them with quick run-ups. So it could be awhile before the Ag mkt breaks.
Crypto and the Mag 7 are all the rage right now.
Is it possible that the US has NO gold reserves remaining due to rehypothication? Could that be why Trump is pushing crypto because he knows that the rest of the world has bought up the US gold reserve and he can only win the reserve argument IF he makes digital currencies the next move after fiat collapses??
If so — how will China, Russia (and countries that have been scooping up gold bullion) react to attempts to instill digital over PM?
“A few days ago Pedro reproduced a silver chart for us ‘tenters’ that showed a projected negative silver trend. He shows his lack of understanding the current silver market by copying a chart based on Elliott Wave analysis. [[ALL YOU ARE SAYING HERE REALLY IS THAT YOU DON’T FIND EW A USEFUL WAY TO VIEW THIS MARKET. MAYBE ANY MARKET. TO EACH HIS OWN, RIGHT? OR ARE YOU CONDEMNING IT FOR ALL BECAUSE ITS NOT YOUR CUP OF TEA? LET’S SEE HOW THIS MOVE PLAYS OUT, RIGHT? TALK LATER?]
Elliott Wave analysis ‘works’ by ‘fitting’ a pattern over current market behavior and then projecting 3 up waves and 2 down waves. [NOT EVEN CLOSE] The current crop of Elliott wavers keeps worrying about a coming wave #4 which they expect will be a scary dip and then they promise us that #5 will be a super ‘upward move’. [I KNOW NO ONE WITH SUCH A COUNT]
Elliott Wave analysis works sometimes in a sideways market, but silver at the moment is not in a sideways market, but in a ‘mother of all bull markets!’ [IGNORANT COMMENT BECAUSE WE ALL TRADE DIFFERENT TIMEFRAMES and EW IS FRACTAL so generalizations like this are literally IDIOTIC, because YOU MUST MATCH YOUR CHARTING WITH YOUR TRADING TIMEFRAMES, and EW works by telescoping in or out … so you MUST zoom in or out with your work accordingly. ALL YOU ARE SAYING IS THIS CHART DOESN’T MATCH YOUR TIMEFRAME. APPLES VS ORANGES then.
Elliott Wavers may remember one of their guru’s – Robert Prechter. ”
First, its pedro not Pedro.
Second, I second Plunger’s remarks on RP. Writing a book is not the same as trading a chart from its right side edge. RP didn’t do the EWI STU (short term update)
Third .. your description of how EW works (or is applied) isn’t remotely accurate.
Its a typical assessment from someone who has merely done a flimsy assed fly by on it. It shows. There’s no hint in your comments that you have any grasp of its methodology.
Fourth .. “silver chart .. that showed a projected negative silver trend. ” No, I called a major top several months ago right here, and just recently called for a resumption of that STILL ONGOING downward correction. “Corrections,” to anyone who understands English, move against the prevailing trend, and the chart I posted shows that a bull should eventually resume ONCE THE SECOND WAVE (not 4th) ends.
So I would say you can’t read an EW chart OR understand what an EW chart is saying. So you are in no position to evaluate it. Which tells me you are out of your league in term of commenting on that kind of analysis.
As always, the proof will be in the pudding. Let’s see where we are in two months.
Finally, if you are getting perspectives and trading off of daily charts, as it appears you are, we have nothing in common from the standpoint of gauging this OR ANY market. I’m not a day trader. So we trade differently, same as you likely get when you throw most any two people together. OR IS YOUR WAY THE ONLY WAY? SEEMS A LOT LIKE HUBRIS TO ME.
I still think the 50 week EMA, which is currently rising but not steeply, is a very legitimate target within the next month. So just a bit lower than the 200 day SMA.
In any event, off of this next major low, we should get a very sizeable rally, potentially 100%+, which is what I am expecting. I do think the rally will start off of a V-shaped low, so I am expecting at least 1 week of sharp panic selling.