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It’s quite possible we have topped out in silver. I was expecting $34 to $36 on this run, and we split the difference and hit $35.
On the daily chart (not shown), I would expect the 50 day MA (currently at around $31 and rising) to provide initial support and should continue to do so for months.
Bottom line though is, it could be 5-6 months before last week’s high is taken out. I am not expecting a crash but more of a sideways grind with at least one false start to be likely in which the recent highs are approached but not exceeded. Ultimately, I expect the 200 DMA to be tested (hopefully 4-5 months from now), which should correspond to a test of the 50 week EMA. The 200 day Bollinger bands will finally tighten up over this time.
We will need patience now, and under no circumstance will I personally be adding to my position until we get that test of the 200 dma (again, most likely 4-5 months from today, which will give it time to rise substantially). Hang in there. I believe once this period is over, we will see $50+. I will likely sell some stock at that point (anywhere from 25-50% of my position) with the hope of buying back some of those shares substantially lower. After that peak at $50+, I think we will likely have to wait around 24 months before that $50+ peak is taken out, on our way to $150+ in the final 12 months of this bull.
TLDR: buy every test of the 200 dma and/or 50 week EMA over the next 3 years. And please hold your nerve. This was never going to be easy.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I COULD BE DEAD WRONG. REMEMBER IN A TRUE BULL, SURPRISES COME TO THE UPSIDE! (LOOK WHAT NVDA DID THE WEEK OF MAY 26, 2020–OFF THAT LOW IT MORE THAN DOUBLED IN 3 MONTHS BEFORE RESTING. I CAN’T COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. WE WILL KNOW VERY SOON WITH SILVER! MAYBE AS SOON AS TOMORROW. I WOULD NOT WANT TO SEE TODAY’S LOW TAKEN OUT FOR THIS UPSIDE SCENARIO.)
Thanks for the insight Sir Nautilus – another (not so TA) take – the GSR is still solidly above 80. The risk of missing a silver gap-up is greater than trying to sell the top here IMO. Standing pat.
The mining majors have had around a 9% retrace from the latest high from mid-last week. I’m not waiting for any more of a pullback (greed). This attitude may be considered FOMO, but as derivatives of gold (my opinion of course), silver and the miners should still be treated as beachballs under water.
Of course the underlying premise is that we’re in a major GOLD bull market which is typically a steady mover unlike miners and silver. Suggest taking a look at the macrotrends.net chart of the DOW/GOLD ratio – gold relative to stocks moves in waves lasting DECADES, not years. True price discovery was thwarted in 2009 and since then the ratio has been propped up with central bank easy $ – I see this as just more fuel for the next collapse downward in this ratio – could be spectacular.
We’re seeing a sharp retest of the mid $32’s in silver. When I see a day like today I agree it’s tough. I held my nose and bought more VZLA, DOLLF and AAGFF. Believe me, I understand the emotions.
I think this is just a strong retest of the breakout.
100%. I could be dead wrong. We should know very very soon I think. If you are right, price should reverse higher quickly.
Nautalus IF this is your view then would a good trader like yourself not dump all your shares here and buy back at the 200 DMA ?
You hold that the TOP is in so why do you continue to hold your shares and loose loose loose every week for 6 months
Thats PAINFUL
I’m not selling anything, yet. This is little more than educated guesswork.
I could be dead wrong.
We have what, maybe another $2 downside at most before silver finds its footing and stabilizes. It’s not worth it for me to trade. I would rather sell when every Tom Dick and Harry is on board. We are not even remotely close to that yet. TBH, while I am more certain about silver, the miners I have no clue about. They are still underperforming silver, and its possible they might outperform silver over the next few months (I know, famous last words!).
Lastly, I am not going to pay anything beyond long term capital gains, which means I cannot just jump in and out.
The wild card ahead …
IRAN PREPARING MAJOR RETALIATORY STRIKE FROM IRAQ WITHIN DAYS – AXIOS.
Absolutely. Things are going to get even crazier and there are loads of wildcards, both economic and geopolitical.
Speaking of crazier, GMG was at the local healthy food store. A 60ish white woman had a scanning app that gave the processed food a score based on the contents. GMG thought that was great. Out of the blue the poor lady went full TDS on GMG.
“Oh, my daughter is having a baby soon and the world is a dangerous place with all the poisoned food and Trump if elected will start a nuclear war.” GMG recognized TDS immediately and walked away muttering “what the hell”.
I experienced the same with an acquaintance on a phone call last night. Everything was going well as he described his recent RV trip up the Alaska highway and back. Something about doing his US travel before “Hitler” gets back in. He’s a Canadian Conservative supporter mid-70’s. He honestly believes the Nazi Party headed by Trump will win the election and Hitler will persecute his detractors. First time I have witnessed his TDS condition. There is an epidemic going around apparently.
Sent him C&C from today with the Garbage meme. I’m sure Hitler would rather die than do what Trump did in the truck and at the rally. Self depredating humour.
TDS could be fatal, is there a shot for that?
“at the local healthy food store”
That’s the problem right there.
She should go to a biker bar. Won’t find TDS there.
TDS comes pre-packaged with advanced media and literacy these days. All the folks that delegate their thinking to others.
TDS IS RAMPANT IN CANADA
I’D SAY 70% HAVE A BAD CASE
Just ask these morons. Trump was President for 4 years, did he do any of the things you are worried about? What has occurred in the last 4 years? Are you happier about them? So why do you think the next 4 years, if he wins, would not be closer to those previous 4 than the last 4?