Loading ...More On The Bifurcated Silver Bullion Market
I posted on this topic on May 16th, which a look back at the silver chart, was right around the $32.50 top. I didn’t have any opinion at the time if the bifurcation was going to lead to a correction or a further upside move.
The bifurcation has continued and may even be getting worse. It seems retail buying has moderated, which makes some sense, since the correction has been ongoing over the last few weeks.
Additional evidence of this retail slowdown comes with an official announcement by the Royal Canadian Mint that they have halted buying additional silver from their suppliers for a number of months.
This could be because retail buyers have wised up and are mostly buying generic rounds instead of Maple Leafs and US Eagles. They are realizing that when it comes time to sell or barter it is weight and weight only that matters. The exhorbitant premiums on sovereign coins isn’t worth it.
It is also quite possible this is more about the Mint not being able to get silver because of a growing shortage at the industrial and mint buyer level? If that is what is actually happening, then the RCM is gaslighting us.
We already know that the US Mint hasn’t been making and issuing, anywhere near the levels of the past, of US Silver Eagles. The shortage (in my opinion) is real and growing at the industrial and mint level. It just hasn’t shown up at the retail level yet. Get your physical before it does.
Just an observation.
Starting in March 2024, Silver has been rising along an up-trending support line. There have been three cycles. Each rise and re-tracement to the support line took two months. The support landed roughly on the previous high. If this pattern holds we could have a choppy two weeks until we bottom at $29. If we close below $29 then all bets are off.
IMHO
Interesting. The 50 day is just below $29 and moving up as spot silver price gets close. Tomorrow’s expected volatility should at least tag the 50 day. We shall see what happens from there.
My local coin shop has a lack of Canadian Silver Maples even though the premium is high. Very low availability of silver eagles too. There appear to be lots of ingots, bars, rounds and collectible coins. They are busy buying and selling. They now have a security guard inside the locked, double door.
I think the North American mints are having silver supply issues, probably because foreign buyers are more eager to secure mine supply and getting it first.
Silver price is much higher in China. It will eventually be resolved with higher prices here.
Me and others keep stacking physical while it is still readily available and cheap for the small retail buyer.