Loading ...Gold/ GDX/ SILJ at Resistance
Stock market at possible double top highs. (Nasdaq and others would be unbalanced double tops). Bitcoin at possible double top Highs.
Gold right at highs.
Haven’t played with DUST in years. Just entered.
Feels like everything is about to tank in unison from here. Shall see.
Everyone looking for pullbacks in the mining sector after a sharp two day runup. Down for 3 1/2 years wasn’t enough I guess. The least expected move now is a rip your face off rally that lasts from here. Bullish sentiment is bullish when markets come off the bottom of a protracted decline. See the stock market in 1982.
Completely plausible scenario. 2000-2002 about to play out?
You are brave to short the miners IMO. For me, based on weekly Ichimoku resistance, there is a near term window on the week of March 18 for the HUI to break through very significant resistance at 230.
If it fails get above 230 on the week of the 18th, then it could be a very long year. In that scenario I think the optimistic view would be that the HUI will be range bounce between the 2022 low and 230 until the second half of the year. The negative view would be a retest of the 2020 low if not even lower.
Something to at least consider is a Zimbabwe type scenario where the stock market continues to ramp higher in nominal terms. Afterall, we KNOW 100% the Fed is going to print and then print some more with any significant bobble. Why shouldn’t the stock market (and metals) discount that fact?
One possible technical analog to the miners that I have been looking at is soybeans from 2005 to 2007. After an initial spike, it dropped into a lower trading range for almost exactly 1 year before it took off.
The short and long term moving averages there are remarkably similar to the miners now IMO. Before taking off, soybeans very briefly broke just below that year long trading range. Maximum frustration. Do the miners ever just ramp smoothly higher from a base? hardly ever.
Any move down in gold/ silver/ miners I see as big but temporary before it then rips people’s faces off with a run up. Just see them coming down one more time and big before running.
Know in a day or two!?
I think everyone has been waiting for that for a while now in the meantime you have multiple bottoms in SILJ just sub 8 HL just sub 3.50. At some point cheap has to be cheap enough. We have been going down for 3 1/2 years. In the meantime Gold is near ATH or better depending upon what chart you use. If you are a long term bull the reward outweighs the risk tremendously here. Stops in some stocks no more than 10% away from current pricing.