GOLD STOCKS SUCK
Thanks Chris ( I think )
Hi Fully
Long time no chat!
I had a thought pop into my head this morning; I wondered how base metal
miners had performed relative to PM miners over the long term. So I did a
little investigation…
I compared BHP Group (one of the largest BM miners) to Barrick (one of the
largest PM miners), as well as PM and BM prices over a 25 year period
(since 1999).
I found the results rather shocking, to be honest.
First: PM prices have risen 7X and Copper prices have risen 4X and Iron
Ore prices have risen 2X since 1999
Second: BHP has risen 10X since 1999
Third: Barrick is actually 10% lower than it was in 1999
So the miner whose product has risen in price 7X since 1999 actually loses
value in the same period, and the miner whose product has risen in price
2X – 4X in the same period has gone up 1000%
Out of further curiosity I checked Rio Tinto as well. And even though it
hasn’t performed as well as BHP, it is still up 650% since 1999.
I am really at a loss to explain this huge disparity in performance
between PM miners and BM miners. Both have the same costs, use the same
equipment and work in the same countries. All these companies are listed
on the NYSE.
So I submit to you: why does the sector whose product has risen 7X in
price not gain at all since 1999, and the sector whose product has only
risen 2-4X gain 650-1000%
Have a good week,
Chris
Simple: Derivatives, ETF’s, Paper. bought Brokers, and super computers! IMO There is no longer a market, only a totally rigged, controlled and manipulated Casino!
Thru careful observation over the years my intuition tells me you are correct.
You are correct about the rigging and manipulation especially in keeping silver down. However, despite those things you mentioned, since gold is up by 7x one can only point to the poor job of gold miner managements for dilution, bad investments etc. for their stocks bad performance. Don’t know if the author included company dividends in his calculation. If not that may increase the gold miners returns but still not enough to account for such poor performance relative to the other companies.
I suspect its something altogether different.
Rates of share dilution.
My data stream each day has OHLC VOL.
It doesn’t have SO (shares outstanding)
I wish it did. It absolutely should.
Wonder how the analysis above fares if you just look at total Mkt Cap.
Forget about how many times the pie is sliced.
Even if the exec’s get lots of shares in these LARGER companies, the totals are not huge in relation to the float.
For small companies, they can be.
So warrants and options morph into shares on vesting, and large chunks of the Mkt Cap accrue to the mgmt team. By dilution of retail.