I believe this article captures the mood of what is occurring in the economy. I and some others have been railing for months about the fudged govt. numbers, particularly jobs and measures of economic strength.

Some of the strength is legit because certain subsidized industries are benefitting from the three major pieces of spending passed in the last two years or so. Most of the full time jobs created are govt. jobs. Most of the rest are double and triple counting of the multiple part time jobs that people need to keep their and their families heads above water.

All of these things distort the numbers, to play into the administration’s narrative that things are positive and the FED’s false narrative about the need to keep interest rates “higher for longer.”

As I have stressed in the past, when people on this forum and elsewhere got it wrong about the coming inflation from the money creation during Covid and now the opposite, that money supply declined substantially since, the supposed stubborness of high inflation is a myth to allow the FED to support the otherwise sharp decline that would be occurring in the dollar.(inflation is real and isn’t going away but it isn’t going to soar, until AFTER the FED cuts and starts some new money creation program to keep things from collapsing)

The article refers to the continuous string of negative readings and the most recent pop higher in the six months forward reading. I believe that specific data point(if correct) is reflecting that in six months there will be at least a temporary bounce in activity as a result of one or two sharp interest rate cuts that will take place in the next two or three months.

I wasn’t aware of the Jeff Bezos quote and don’t know if that was something he stated recently or if it was made sometime in the past. What matters is he is correct.

“The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There’s something wrong with the way you are measuring it.”

Read the whole article, it captures a good part of what is going on. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/theres-odd-chill-air-dallas-fed-respondents-warn-pending-doom