Loading ...SPX LT
Since this is primarily a technical analysis site (right?)
In the posting text, the author emphasizes that the current wave 3 MUST make a new ATH, AND the subsequent 4 down MUST overlap the wave 1 high for the ending diagonal pattern to play out.
Technical note … EW folks are usually aware that the peak RSI in a structure will be associated with the 3rd wave within the larger 3rd wave. The lower degree third is not labeled, but can be easily seen at the Jan 2018 point.
EW IS Clear as mud to me
Me too.
The validity of this conjecture depends on whether the labels already assigned to the price history abide the rules and guidelines. Books have been written on those. So the conjecture itself is open to challenge based on checking it against those rules. (Ie, you can’t just throw up labels in whatever fashion you wish.) One rule violation and its tossed.
This conjecture, based on the known past, implies a structure for its completion in its entirety, that must still take us through the near term future (the next year or so), and stick to the rules doing so. Then, if this pattern completes as shown, there are significant implications for what happens after that are … potentially devastating. Many are covering this territory, and DBC in his YIR I just posted has a section on what he expects, without drawing on EW. You can “get there” many different ways. We can all feel it.
But the pattern must first complete for that scenario to play out.
There is always an awareness that other patterns could play out instead.
But like in poker, you try to read the odds and play WITH THEM instead of against.