At some point, the Liberal decline in the polls will bottom-out. At some point, they will be down to their smallest core group of supporters and will stabilize even if at a very low level.

But not this week.

This week, the Liberals have hit a new low in the polls.

According to the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals have fallen to just 22% nationwide.

They are now TIED WITH THE NDP.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have reached 41%, meaning they are close to doubling the support levels of the Liberals.

According to Polling Canada, those numbers would result in the Conservatives winning 213 seats, while the Liberals would drop all the way down to 52, just six ahead of the NDP at 46.

The regional picture is even more devastating for the Liberals.

They are projected to win 33 of their 52 seats in Quebec, leaving them with just 19 in the entire rest of the country. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would win 199 seats outside Quebec. This would give the Conservatives a truly stunning 180 seat advantage over the Liberals outside Quebec.

Even worse for the Liberals is that the NDP would win 44 seats outside Quebec, putting them ahead of the Liberals in most of the country.

Such a result would likely be devastating to the Liberals’ long-term prospects as a party, as they would no longer be seen as a credible alternative to the Conservatives outside of Quebec, leaving that space to the NDP.

Trudeau’s personal popularity also keeps falling, with a recent Morning Consult poll showing him with a 64% disapproval rating, compared to just a 30% approval rating.

The Nanos numbers will soon start to shift the 338Canada.com national polling average which aggregates all recent polls, which will result in the Liberals falling even further behind.

Currently, the Conservatives are on track for 41% of the vote and 208 seats, while the Liberals are set to win 26% of the vote and 73 seats. The NDP is set to win 19% of the vote and 25 seats.

There is a 96% chance of a Conservative majority, and a 4% chance of a Conservative minority.

Combined, the Liberals, NDP, and Greens are on track for just 100 seats, a full 70 seats short of a majority.

And all of this is after what the legacy press tried to claim was a ‘bad week’ for Pierre Poilievre, demonstrating not only their own lack of political awareness but also their deep bias.

We should expect to see that bias more and more, as it’s no coincidence that they shaded their coverage in an even more anti-Conservative direction mere days after the Liberal fiscal update announced an expanded media bailout.

What the press doesn’t seem to realize is that their coverage of Poilievre has been quite negative already, and he has surged in the polls just the same. With more Canadians getting their news from alternative sources, and with the state of the country so dire that no amount of spin can change perceptions, the Liberals continue to decline.

What will be interesting to watch going forward is how the increased desperation of the Liberals manifests itself. Their new communications director will obviously seek to push a cohesive message, but with Liberal MPs going crazy on social media – Liberal MP Ken Hardie tried blaming a Winnipeg mass shooting on Pierre Poilievre for example – desperation and Liberal rage may overpower whatever remnants of common-sense exist in the government.

We will also have to keep an eye on what the NDP does. With Jagmeet Singh (recently seen toting a luxury Versace bag while lecturing everyone about the ‘greed’ of CEOS) already indicating he’s willing to surrender on his pharmacare demand, the NDP leader gives every indication that he will continue to do Trudeau’s bidding. But if more and more polls show the Liberals falling into a tie – or perhaps even behind – the NDP, at what point will Singh’s party pressure him into pushing for an election?

Trudeau’s inability to stem the tide of his collapsing poll numbers has put the Liberals in an even more vulnerable position and will surely mean more political chaos ahead.

Spencer Fernando