Goldtent TA Paradise

AN OVERVIEW OF CANADIAN FEDERAL POLLING

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   October 30, 2023 - 9:23 pm at 9:23 pm

   According to the latest 338Canada.com aggregation of national polls, the Liberals now trail the Conservatives by 14 points.

   The Conservatives are at 41% nationwide, with the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 18%.

   If such a result were repeated on election day, the Liberals would win an estimated 81 seats. Thus, they risk being pushed back into Stephane Dion territory.

   Meanwhile, the Conservatives are set to do better than they did even in their 2011 majority government win, as they are on pace for 207 seats.

   And now, even the lowest end of the CPC seat projection puts them in majority territory at 170 seats. This means that – if the current polls are anywhere close to accurate – the Conservatives are almost guaranteed to win a majority government.

   At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the NDP remains stuck at their usual 18%, as they have gained absolutely no support even as the Liberals crumble.

   Now, much of our look at politics focuses on the short-term, and that makes sense given how quickly things can change and how dramatic both national and international issues have been recently.

   But there is an interesting long-term trend to consider.

   Before the tragic passing of Jack Layton, Canada seemed to be heading towards a quasi-two-party system.

   The Liberal Party looked to be heading in the same direction as the Liberal Party in the U.K. – towards extinction.

   The Liberals had lost support in every election since 2004.

   In subsequent elections the Liberals dropped from 37%, to 30%, to 26%, and then 19% in 2011.

   The Conservatives had gained votes in every election since 2004, going form 30%, to 36%, to 38%, and then to 40% in 2011.

   The NDP had slowly grown during Layton’s tenure, before surging into second place in 2011 with 31% of the popular vote.

   A combination of Layton’s passing – leaving the NDP in the hands of the less-charismatic Tom Mulcair, the return of the Trudeau brand, and fatigue with the Harper era managed to reverse the Liberal decline, as they won 39% in 2015 and stormed back into government.

   Yet, both the Liberals and Conservatives appear to be returning to the pre-Trudeau trend.

   The Liberals have lost the popular vote in their last two minority government wins, meaning that out of the last six Canadian federal elections, the Liberals have won the popular vote just once, while the Conservatives have won it the five other times.

   The Trudeau brand is now deeply damaged across the nation, and the Liberals – having built their party completely around Trudeau – don’t really have a fallback.

   While the next election is still likely a way off, we could be seeing a reversion towards a long-term trend that positions the Conservatives, not the Liberals, as Canada’s ‘natural governing party’. This is especially likely if the Conservatives continue to gain support among young Canadians, as people often form long-term voting patterns early on.

   What remains to be seen however is what happens to the NDP. Jagmeet Singh has proven uniquely incapable of taking advantage of the Liberals’ declining support, because he has so closely tied his party to the Liberal government. And the NDP recently reaffirmed their support for Singh, so he will likely get another chance to lose.

   But if the Liberals prove unable to reverse their ongoing decline, and if the NDP decides to choose a more adept leader, we could see Canada heading towards a two-party system once more as the once-venerable Liberal Party risks irrelevancy.

   Spencer Fernando