I have written a couple times between posts and comments that September will be tough for almost everything, especially stocks.  Mostly because I think the USD is going to throw everyone off by rallying like SpaceX just launched it into space.  Fully has posted a couple charts recently that highlight how it is starting to breakout and up recently.

Below is a bit of a messy chart, but shows the fib retracements of the yearly cycle (green) and the first yearly half cycle and the second yearly half cycle (blues).   The first half cycle retraced just a bit more than 50%, which is typical.  The second half cycle (current) has yet to even tag the 32% (typically the minimum).   A good sign that the yearly cycle has topped is how the top of the first half cycle lined up with the 32% retracement of the yearly cycle high.

Of note, if we get the same slight undercut of the 50% for the second half cycle, it would give a perfect tag of the 32% yearly line and be a back test of the Feb high.

 

Last note: Many are calling for retests of the October 2022 lows.  Emotionally, I believe we are heading that way as well.  From a cycle perspective, unless we have a serious crash, I just don’t see it as time is not the side of a retest of those lows.  Yearlys are typically around a year, and the half cycles within those are about 6 months.  So time is running out for a serious draw down to happen.

As usual, open to comments or critiques!