Days ago I posted a weekly Ichimoku cloud as my rationale for believing the miners wouldn’t be able to make much headway until October.

October for me will be a huge month for my own technical thesis.  The single most important thing for me as evidence we have started a massive bull run will be if the HUI can close that month above the 230 level.

I am speculating that the next FOMC meeting on September 20 and the October unemployment data are going to be huge for the fate of the miners.

For now, as I stated days ago, I am not expecting the HUI to be able to maintain itself above the declining 50 dma going into the late September FOMC meeting.  I believe we will see sideways to down action, with the possibility of a marginally lower low than the August 21 low between now and the first week of October that will set up a positive momentum divergence that is often typical of major bottoms (i am expecting the exact opposite for the dollar–i.e., a marginally higher high that fails to make a higher high on momentum indicators).

While i am only expecting a marginally lower low if even that, as you know in this sector you can get extreme moves.  So it would definitely not shock me if we got some sort of mini crash into a low.  The key will getting be a fairly swift, v-shaped recovery if that’s how it plays out.

Once we are into October, I am expecting the subsequent 24 to 36 months to be epic for the miners.  I am basing this off of similar technical patterns that many commodities experienced from 2005 into the 2008 top.  (For example, wheat went up almost 5x over that short span.  Almost the entire move was made in only about 24 months.)