I am expecting Powell’s spiel tomorrow to amount to little more than a repeat of the mantra he has been spewing over the last year: “Inflation still a problem, nowhere near 2% target, data dependent” blah blah blah.

There is no way he hints at easing, much less more QE or YCC.

I expect the dollar to continue its rally at least until the next FOMC on September 20th, as a result.

Something is going to have to break before he relents.  My guess is unemployment.  The Dow and Nasdaq are so dominated by a handful of cash-rich companies, I am seriously doubtful rising interest rates will cause them to crash. (Let’s keep a close eye on the regional banking ETFs like KBWB though.)

If I had to make a wild guess, I am going to say that the release of the unemployment number in the first week of October is going to mark a turning point for the USD and gold, as it will be clear at that point that the US economy is headed for a recession.

I would rather not see the HUI drop below 200, but I am not naive enough to think it isn’t possible.  I think between now and late September, the gold mining indexes are going to be a chop-fest, and most likely will make a lower low than last week by late September.  I will be very surprised if they aren’t at least rangebound under the declining 50 dma until then.