We still haven’t tagged the lower week bollinger band, which is currently 212.76 and sharply turned down.

There is a 99.9% chance the HUI will have to tag the lower weekly bollinger band before it can rally.  The lower band is going to be dropping near vertically now, so the sooner the HUI can tag it, the better IMO.  I would be highly dubious of any bounce whatsoever before that condition is met.

Next week the band will probably be around 209.

The odds are thus pretty high that the March pivot low at 210 will be broken in the next few weeks unless I see something like a gap down open tomorrow followed by a massive reversal.  we all know that is unlikely before next week’s Jackson Hole meeting.

Given the size of this week’s candle, my guess is if a near term low is found, it will be next week at the earliest.

I still think a 2 year moonshot rally will begin by October.  The only problem is huge amounts of near term damage can be inflicted before then.  I’m cautiously optimistic that the 172 pivot low from last year holds.