Jeff Childers

It’s time again to discuss our elephantine excess deaths problem. There’s been an important timeline development, and we need to prepare for the next phase.

But first, the usual disclaimer: we are forced to use independent data sources because the government is , sadly, worse than useless these days, when it comes to accurate health information. As far as I know, the CDC does not even recognize that there are any excess deaths. I checked this morning, searching the CDC’s own website:

There are pages and pages of results from the CDC website, just nothing related to the fact that the United States is currently experiencing a 21-sigma — once in a lifetime — period where working age people are dying at history-busting rates. I can understand why corporate media shuns the topic, because it’s bad for business for their real customer, Big Pharma. Still, you’d think a massively-funded government health agency packed with alert scientists sworn to defend the common good would have at least NOTICED the problem. Or even debunked it as “misinformation” if it didn’t exist.

But no.

In hindsight, putting the same bloated bureaucracy in charge of both setting health policy and also measuring health outcomes was a massive mistake. It’s a fox/henhouse problem. If we ever get a chance to re-imagine things, our national health data reporting agency should be as isolated, independent, and mission-focused as possible.

The excess deaths narrative has become incoherent. On one hand, Fortune ran a headline three weeks ago claiming a massive +85% jump in excess deaths in the last three years

As an aside, according to the Fortune article, the excess mortality problem is worst in the United States, for some baffling reason: “People in the U.S. are dying at higher rates than in other similar high-income countries, and that difference is only growing.”

But, on the other hand, liberal social media influencers are doing their part to keep the lid screwed on and to keep everyone confused:

So once again, as in the pandemic’s heyday, we are left peering through a dark glass, squinting to make out the blurry shapes for ourselves. Today we must return to the deep dive on excess morbidity and mortality because it’s been over six months since people stopped taking the jabs in large numbers. And my fervent hope and prayer was we’d start to see the numbers trending back down.

In other words, I was hoping that once people stopping taking the damned things, the jab-induced spike protein would start clearing people’s bodies and the health numbers would start looking better.

You can probably guess the news isn’t good. It’s not. It’s a stinker.

Since we looked at some disabled celebrities yesterday, let’s start with the disability data.

Former E*Trade founder, financial analyst, and philanthropist Edward Dowd has been a reliable source for reporting on “mortality adjacent” figures for a while now. Based on his experience chasing financial markets, Dowd came up with the practical solution that, if the CDC’s mortality data is unreliable, you can still look at other, related information the CDC narrative-spinners can’t micromanage into meaninglessness.

Im sure you’ll recall last year’s exposé of the mushrooming life insurance claims data. That was Dowd’s work.

This year Dowd is tracking disability data, which is produced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and like insurance claims, disability data is hard to fudge, since it is based on claims for disability relief and real money paid. Insurers and disability agencies don’t just take people’s word for granted, either. Getting a check requires evidence.

Down published the government’s disability data separately in graphs for men and women. We’ll start with employed ladies receiving partial disability relief: claims have reached historically high levels — and the trajectory is heading toward lower Earth orbit:

It’s both better and worse than it looks. The y-axis (up and down) is thousands of persons. So, for example, in early 2021 there were about two million working-age men on partial disability, but now two years later that figure is about a million workers higher, over three million.

The total disability figure, all categories, rocketed +857,000 JUST IN JUNE, reaching a new all-time high of over 34 million disabled Americans, if you can believe that. It’s a breathtaking number representing over 10% of all Americans. I even checked the BLS website in disbelief; it is true: “In 2022, persons with a disability accounted for 12 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.”

And that was LAST year.

The working-age figures are terrifically important for two reasons. First, these are the folks historically least likely to have health problems and become disabled. It used to take a bad car accident, toppling off a ladder, or a serious mandolin mishap or something. Second, the rapid en masse departure of hundreds of thousands of previously-healthy workers from the labor market will have profound and unpredictable effects.

That’s evidence of a lot of new, excess morbidity. Now let’s look at excess mortality.

? When it comes to mortality, I have followed Ethical Skeptic, whose background is former Naval intelligence and complex data modeling.

Here’s Ethical’s most recent update on cancer mortality:

The lower, dashed red line is the 2014-2019 five-year average. The gap between the dashed red line and the solid white line is the current excess. For whatever reason, cancer deaths are seasonal, which is why the trend lines bounce up and down. As you can see, in 2020, cancer deaths (white line) were below the five-year average (dashed red line).

But something happened in early 2021 and a gap appeared, after which the current cancer deaths have remained well above the five-year average.

Now, see what’s happening at the far right, where the arrow is. That’s the most recent trend, and as you can see, current deaths are suddenly no longer tracking the red five-year seasonal average. Instead of trending back down, the white 2023 deaths line flattened out.

In other words, the already-elevated cancer deaths in 2023 aren’t even seasonally dropping. It’s almost like it’s setting a new, much higher baseline.

Ethical adjusts his figures for a bunch of variables including delayed treatment and “long covid.” He also caught the CDC re-classifying a lot of sudden cancer deaths into a catchall bucket and has added them back into the numbers. Like Dowd, Ethical also reports on adjacent data, like the American Cancer Society’s latest cancer report, which this month disclosed a +11.5% excess in new cancer diagnoses over the projected baseline:

Again, the y-axis is thousands of cases. So we’re currently seeing about two million cancer diagnoses a year, up from 1.6 million in 2013, and the trend is increasing sharply. +11.5% may not be a lot in absolute numbers, but we must wonder: when is it going to peak?

? Now let’s see what Ethical reported in the most critical category of All Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality Ages 0-54. In other words, deaths not from covid, not from accidents, and only in younger people. This “all causes” data is critically important to knowing what’s going on because it doesn’t let the CDC conceal jab-related deaths with its classification shell game.

Ethical’s charts are extremely informative but can get a little complex. I marked two places for you. The first, marked “a”, shows the lying-standing pre-pandemic trend line. As you’d expect, before covid, the rates of natural (non-accidental) deaths in younger people was very predictable (and low).

Before the pandemic, younger people just didn’t die very often. Not from “natural causes.” Mostly they die from accidents, suicides, and other self-inflicted injuries like drug overdoses. This particular chart excludes accidents, suicides, overdoses, homicides, and covid deaths. So, suddenly younger people are newly dying from natural causes in relatively large numbers.

Following the blue line forwards from point “a”, you can see that around the end of 2019, excess deaths jumped off the prior low baseline, probably first representing unclassified covid and lockdown-related deaths in 2020. But then, starting at the dashed line marked ‘b’ — three months into 2021 — deaths took off even faster and never looked back.

Since the beginning of 2022, excess weekly deaths have been rising steadily with no sign of recovery, not even now, more than six months after people stopped taking the shots in large numbers. The trend line just continues heading up.

In the even younger 0-24 year-old group, Natural Causes of Death also continue growing, and are now at a breathtaking +32% (12-sigma) — compared to +26.4% (10-sigma) excess only four weeks ago.

The point is, I had hoped these numbers would be trending back down, along with sinking spike injections.

We shouldn’t lose perspective. The absolute numbers are still relatively small. We are currently at around +1,100 excess weekly natural cause deaths among younger folks, which is +4,400 a month, or +52,800 a year at the present rate. For sure, that’s a lot of people who should never have died, but it’s not millions, not yet.

But, even assuming it somehow levels off, +53,000 extra people dying per year is a massive public health failure, regardless of the cause. The CDC should be in an “all hands on deck” mode to figure out what’s happening. Its website should have daily updates from CDC scientists. But no.

It’s almost like they don’t WANT to know the reason.

? We are reaching an inflection point where even the absolute numbers are getting so large they can’t be denied much longer, raising two huge questions.

First, how high will disabilities and deaths go? Nothing like this has ever happened before, so there’s no way to predict the top, there’s nothing to compare it against.

Second, and slightly less inscrutable, what will the government do once the excess mortality numbers get so high that government is forced to finally confront them? One thing we know for sure is, they won’t admit it’s the shots. That would condemn themselves. But sick people need to be treated.

So they’ll have to invent a new bogeyman, but it will be complicated because they can’t fix a problem they don’t admit. It’s a head-scratcher.

Incidentally, as much as they’d love to blame all the deaths on global warming, I don’t think ‘climate change’ is going to stick. How does climate change increase disabilities and cancer deaths? Lots of people live in hot climates with no air conditioning and have never seen those problems.

As we head into the latter half of 2023, we have a new mission, very similar to the old mission of exposing overestimated covid deaths. We will need to be ready to debunk the government’s crazy new excuses, one by one, as the psyops are rolled out.

They’re at at least two major pieces of good news. First, there are a lot more people paying attention now, who aren’t being suppressed by social safety mania. Second, the government has lost control of its censorship machine. It won’t be able to keep a tight lid on information, and it’s going to get harder and harder to play statistical games, especially as the other data sets like life insurance claims, disability claims, and cancer drugs expenditures confirm the excess morbidity and mortality data.

Fasten your seat belt. The second half of the year will probably be a wild ride.