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I believe Powell’s extreme hawkishness in his testimony the last two days has been fully priced into the markets. As I posted recently this combined with the made up economic stats from the administration was all to create one final spike in the dollar and one final washout in gold and silver so the shorts could cover their naked futures contracts. Mission accomplished. I expected the dollar to trade between the 50 day around 103 and the 200 day around 106 and that has been the zone. Friday’s job number or today’s U/E claims may give us one last spike towards 106. That should be it. I see nothing to expect the job number to be anything but more fiction from the administration. Here is a tell to look for that could confirm this is it. After the job number tomorrow if gold and silver either fall and reverse higher or don’t fall and rally it will be the tell that all this bullshit about the economy being strong and inflation reaccelerating is already priced into the market and reality is about to set in. The attached article that I just came across was fascinating because it documents that over decades one can’t make any generalizations about either the level or direction of interest rates nor inflation on the outlook for stock prices. The author details how there is no clear cut analogy or pattern. However the paragraphs highlighted in the comment section below shows his thinking is somewhat like mine described above about where we stand now for the dollar and interest rates. I have just expounded on my recent postings about how that plays into what is next for gold and silver as well.
“Right now the 10-year Treasury yield is about the same as it was in 2002, 2006, or 2010. The shorter end of the yield curve is similar with the current 2-year yield the same as early 1994, fall of 1998, or fall of 2006. Yes, the journey matters which is why we track the short and intermediate-term trends but I’ve been doing this for over 30 years and today’s rates are not significantly different than they’ve been for most of my career. The average 10-year yield since March 1991 is 3.99% which is exactly where it closed last Friday.
While the short-term trend hasn’t changed yet, the bond rally at the end of the week may have signaled that the recent short-term rate uptrend is coming to an end. I’m not ready to make that official but the trading was consistent with what we’ve seen in the past at tops. With a big employment report Friday we may get more clarity on rates this week.
The dollar trend didn’t change last week either. The dollar is in a short-term downtrend while intermediate and long-term trends remain up. There has been a countertrend rally in the dollar since early February that, like the short-term uptrend in rates, may be coming to an end. If the dollar were to fall back to the February lows it would end the very short-term, countertrend rally and also flip the intermediate-term trend to down. That would be significant for a lot of asset classes.”
The pm complex has been a dog since I started messing about with it 45 years ago. You can make money flipping the stuff but overall you would have been much better off in the SP500. Hindsight yep but I have been reading and posting on boards like since for over 20 years and it is the same story. The sector is a trade not a buy and hold and if you are thinking the physical metals you have been buying will save you when TSHTF think again. They won’t let you use it. 40 years ago there might have been places to run and hide. Now? Don’t think so.
“if you are thinking the physical metals you have been buying will save you when TSHTF think again. They won’t let you use it.” That is why black markets happen everywhere throughout history in every place when the SHTF. They might not let you use it but the black market will be happy to take your gold and silver for food and anything else you need to survive. You say metals won’t save you. So what is your alternative? I’ll go with 5000 years of history over your opinion.
Black market? They whoever they are successfully closed down the world and locked yer a$$ inside your house. Most obeyed. There aren’t enough people with enuf ballz left to do anything about what is about to unfold. The answer? Well it sure as hell ain’t Bitcoin. Glad I’m on the back nine.
You aren’t saying what IS the alternative because there ISN”T one. It has always been and always will be real money, Gold & Silver. Of course it ain’t bitcoin or anything else.
I imagine we will all need to use utilities whatever you may currently pay online with a CC or directly from your cash bank account. Grocery stores you pay the same way. Now tell me how you plan to transition from the current system to Silver? Cause you ain’t paying Duke Energy or whoever provides your electricity with Gold. We will be trapped into the CBDC system. You wanna go off grid and grow all your own food? Possible for a small % of the population not for the vast majority. You speak of a commune type system that TPTB will not allow.
Not sure if you favor a CBDC or are just expecting it will be forced on us. I will agree it will be forced on us. I have said in the past you will use it for everything they will allow you to. Basics within their rules. Everything and anything else that they won’t allow is where gold and ssilver and the black maarkets come in, like everywhere throughout human history. If there is a demand for something criminals and or entrepreneurs will provide it. Think speak easy’s during prohibition and or all drugs that have been or were illegal. If people are willing to pay for something they want, someone will figure out a way to provide it.
Agree CM….where there’s a will there’s a way
PS CBDC’s will never be uniformly accepted….there will always be alternatives…Herding cats
I’m against everything The West currently stands for including a CBDC.