Commodity complex worth at least a nibble now?
GCC, which tracks the old $CCI (unweighted commodity index), has been correcting for over a year now. I have been anticipating that it would touch or get close to the 600 day MA before heading higher.
Well, we are almost there. Of course, now that a much lower risk entry is presenting itself compared to a year ago, people all of a sudden get cold feet. In this sector, which is clearly the enemy of the Fed, it’s understandable–e.g., even if we are significantly higher in 2-3 months, you can’t rule out some sort of insane spike lower that occurs very quickly before being reversed. That being said, I personally believe it’s a decent entry point here and on any further weakness.
Never hurts to look.
Off the high I see 3 bigger waves down for A into last summer.
Now 8 months of sideways, possibly a triangle missing more of d down and e up. (triangles are B waves or 4th waves, so here a B.)
Then C down to match A. (C=A)
That entails quite a risk.
Buying is a $ down bet. Did Powell really talk pivot? Missed that part.
Looking for something in this space, try BDRY after the next major low.
I hear ya, but the turn WILL come before any official pivot or pause, likely when we get our first weak employment report.
That being said, it’s quite possible that Plunger’s April May call for a low in the PMs is correct. And of course a ton of damage can be inflicted in 2-3 months even if precedes a V shaped recovery.
see my post