For me, the lowest risk entry for silver will be approximately when the 100 WMA crosses back below the 200 WMA.  I have drawn projections of those two moving averages in the silver chart below, but of course they may not move exactly linearly.  By that account, they are due to cross around June or July this year.  So Plunger’s notion to buy in May (correct me if I am wrong), could have some real merit.

I’ve been comparing silver to $wheat back in the early 2000s.  To me the structures are extremely similar.  Many of the softs bottomed more or less exactly at the same time back in late 2005, as you can see on the chart below for $wheat.  From that level, $wheat went on to basically quadruple into the peak before the GFC.

Notice how the 400 WMA created a floor for $wheat, and similarly for silver.  None of this is a guarantee obviously, but I found the similarities pretty striking.