So far gold and silver are behaving like I expected them to for most of this year, which is to say range-bound.

I am not expecting any fireworks until later in the year or possibly early ’24.

In this respect, I think Plunger’s thesis that the miners will retest their lows or at least remain weak this year makes sense, and that such a move will likely occur with a move lower in the stock market.

I do not like the fact that silver’s 100 WMA is declining, which creates a natural and persistent zone for selling, and  I don’t believe that the 100 WMA will stop its decline until it manages to cross below the 200 WMA, which could happen as early as July/August.

I would like to be wrong about this near term prediction, but I figure it’s better to think about this conservatively.  I am expecting a massive 2-3 year bull move once gold and silver start trending in earnest, so waiting another 6-10 months isn’t too big a deal after the 8 year base the metals and miners will have built.  That being said, I am never going to rule out a 2008 or 2020 type waterfall before the real bull move kicks off, which would obviously not be much fun to hold through.

Silver needs to close a week above $24.75 to convince me otherwise, and at this point that looks like a very big ask in the next month or two.