Loading ...Beware the Ides of March
Today, March 14, is a minor 4.9 year Economic Confidence Model turn date if you follow Martin Armstrong. When an individual market has a turn that coincides with his ECM turn dates, these produce usually extended moves in either direction, just like a rogue wave either peaking or crashing. You cannot see it in advance, but have to look back after the date occurs to see what was affected by it. The last ECM date was Jan 18/21 and we know how the markets responded to that. This should be interesting to see what has major changes in direction going forward.
Funny that his cycles are based on pi (3.14) and today is pi (3/14) day.
he grew up in house #314 also
What market(s) are suppose to change? Does it just measure “economic confidence” like Michigan Sentiment Index or something else?
I believe it is a bunch of cycles lining up date and time will tell for direction. I read Chenzen in covid lockdown and that is a big tech town so more shortages on chips…. High yield bond HYG continues to drop today so the market follows that imo. FOMC wed , will they hold off on rate increase ….
They shouldn’t but I also said they should have started raising in Dec. They may back off but I think they will start with a quarter and play it by ear as we go along.
“The last ECM date was Jan 18/21 and we know how the markets responded to that.”
Please help me out here. I don’t recall much happening in Jan 2021.
Sir Pedro,
Here is the Nasdaq low on 1/24/2022
Jan 24, 2022 13,481.50 13,876.61 13,094.65 13,855.13 13,855.13
It held until the Ukraine Russia war started
Feb 23, 2022 13,511.75 13,533.78 13,032.17 13,037.49 13,037.49
Feb 24, 2022 12,587.88 13,486.11 12,587.88 13,473.59 13,473.59
A new low established today
Mar 14, 2022 12,795.10 12,918.01 12,562.35 12,610.41 12,610.41
Not sure if you follow Jeff Kern.
“The gold stocks dropped solidly during the day on 1/24/22 as the general stock market plunged, but then they rebounded as the DJIA rebounded from a 1000-point drop. USERX only dropped 1.8% to 11.26. A “plunge” into the execution of the 16-20 index’s buy signal would have been more “SKI-desirable”. The SKI indices are usually rather EXACT by generating buy and sell signals 1-day in advance of a significant low or high. After a small rise the next day, the gold stocks and gold tumbled on/after the 1/26/22 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. USERX declined to a new 1.5-year low at 10.55 as other gold stock indices approached their 2021 lows.”
Complete article:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern021422.html
Please let me know if you have more questions.
GL
“The last ECM date was Jan 18/21”
You confused me with that wording. I read it as meaning Jan 18, 2021.
As for Kern, I tracked his system for several years, and still have the math in Excel.
I could not replicate consistent signals from any of that on its own, without his further reads. Meaning the system doesn’t appear to be transparently objective. It requires artful interpretation. That’s not to say he can’t generate winners. He did, and likely does. I just couldn’t replicate his calls off the math alone.
Hey Pedro, Sorry just getting back to you now as I was working doing renovations all day. My mistake – I was confusing the he last ECM date on Jan 18/21 with the previous major turn down in the markets in March of 2020. Sorry about the confusion. Nothing to my knowledge happened on the last ECM date but I didn’t have access to Armstrong’s private blog which is where he may have posted something.