Loading ...Silver is probably cooked…
Barring a miracle reversal on Friday’s employment report, the next stop for me is $17-18.
It’s frustrating and frankly unbelievable given the liquidity spigot the Fed and global central bankers have opened up, but it is what it is.
Unfortunately, exchange rates (i.e., the USD) seem to matter more than the absolute quantity of currency in the system. So that means as long as the ECB, BoJ and SNB are willing to stay more loose than the Fed, the USD will rise and commodities and gold and silver will come under pressure.
We saw this in 2013, when the day after the Fed announced QE3 and gold bugs were taking a victory lap for “being right,” the BoJ announced an even bigger QE program and gold and silver proceeded to tank.
This is why Powell can so confidently state that inflation will moderate–because it probably will due to a rising USD. It seems to me the US stock market will continue to be the prime beneficiary of the global liquidity spigot–US megacorps are able to play the stock buy-back game at ultra low interest rates, which in turn just further cements their monopolies and power since smaller competitors don’t have nearly the same access to capital markets.
Ambush! Zero F’s being given by many miners here.
Most have already discounted this fall in silver. But I guarantee you if silver does eventually tag $17, they will be quite a bit lower from today’s level.
That being said, I am not expecting the HUI to go under 190-200, which means it probably will. Once it breaks below 200, that is where the full blown bear market case (a la 2013-2016), at least technically speaking, become a reality, which is exactly while it will probably happen.
21 and then 19 look like solid support IMO
I hope you are right. We’ll see. Again, I think most of the technical damage has already been inflicted (assuming we are still in a secular bull market). Where ever prices end up in the next 2-3 months, I am expecting the next leg of this bull to be parabolic in nature.
NFP will not be released until October 8th. Silver headed to $19 soon if they can rune the stops below $21.50.