While it looks like any escape from Plunger’s thesis is seeming less likely with every passing minute, I personally have one last hope that this decline may be over soon.

Months ago I observed that every single consolidation in silver during the last bull market touched the 100 WMA before a run to new highs occurred.   Well, silver is finally within sneezing distance of that key moving average, which is sitting at $22.27 this week.  So far, today’s low is still about 25 cents away from that level, so it’s highly likely the carnage is not over yet.  And even if that moving average technically “holds,” that doesn’t mean we can’t dip below it on a weekly close before rebounding.

If the 100 WMA gives way, I see no reason silver won’t eventually hit its 200 or 400 week moving averages, which are at $19.05 and $18.15, respectively.  And if does get down to $18, I am expecting that it will stay at that level for quite a while (perhaps a year or more).