Goldtent TA Paradise

No summer rally as far as the eye can see for the PM complex

1. Gold Learner says:

   September 9, 2021 - 2:08 pm at 2:08 pm

   Sir JSK,

   Summer ends in less than two weeks. Every “known” PM up-time of the year can be “manipulated”.

   I think right now PMs are in a reactionary mode, waiting for (more) bad news to impact the economy.

   I read about the downward revisions to the GDP (growth) estimates.
   Being from India, I know how fake the growth numbers can be with raging inflation. A feel good GDP growth, always “just a little behind” the inflation rate. Of course, in India banks still pay 7% or something like that on term deposits.
   I also “heard” that gold buying in India is picking up, as USA inflationary news means sooner or later the local currency, Indian Rupee, will get devalued again. It has been quite stable of late (which also tells about USD-weakness, if one looks beyond the DXY measure … LOL)

   Coming back to GDP. Here, in the USA, we don’t have even that “feel good number” right now … the GDP “growth” could be 2-3%, with inflation 10-15%, easily.

   And since banks don’t pay interest, we are flooded with speculators, Robinhood gen-Z or otherwise.

   Waiting, and watching.
   A disciple of Jim Sinclair, since 2007.

   GL

2. Noman says:

   September 9, 2021 - 2:11 pm at 2:11 pm

   I am assuming the everything bubble has popped. I am short everything, the miners, the general stock market. Watching the congress mark up a bill that has no chance. Waiting for the Moron in chief to jump the shark tonight with an order that will not be obeyed. Interesting times.

   • Gold Learner says:

     September 9, 2021 - 2:23 pm at 2:23 pm

     Sir Noman,
     You were very brave with your honest, TA based, JDST call a few days back … if I remember correctly.

     But you got stopped for a short loss I believe.

     Then there are those like me, who always think … this is it … the PM train is about to leave the station … PM perma-bulls … now it is up, up and away!
     I also got proven wrong, once again.

     My only solace is, taking more long term profits in 4 miners … ANXGF, ASM, NGD and SVBL … partially selling my holdings in each of these, since they were “at a better price than the recent lows in the second half of August.

     I’m short the broader markets, but both of my tiny SQQQ and SRTY positions are heavily under water, and I’m tempted to add more using the proceeds from the sales mentioned above, but wary.

     Maybe I should still buy some drastically oversold new juniors instead, that I don’t have in my portfolio? Or may be cost average down those that I do have?

     GL

     • JSKauai says:

       September 9, 2021 - 2:35 pm at 2:35 pm

       Awhile back I was attempting to play with SQQQ. I got out about even and there is no going back there. Good luck GL but be careful with those 3x etfs

       • Gold Learner says:

         September 9, 2021 - 5:14 pm at 5:14 pm

         Sir JSK,
         I’m getting even warier to touch these SQQQ, SRTY and the ilk. Dow is down just above 2% from its all time high, and my gut tells me that if a sharp down move occurs on a Friday morning, Fed may step in, already.

         On the other hand, the more I read about miners about to break down, like Sir Noman advised, the more I think buying JDST for a short 5-10-15% trade looks better … at the same time holding my juniors for the long-er term! How’s that for an unprecedented portfolio?

         And by the way, you got so many replies on this thread, it is as good as a poll!

         GL

3. Noman says:

   September 9, 2021 - 2:27 pm at 2:27 pm

   Are we Ahab chasing the Great White Whale?

4. Noman says:

   September 9, 2021 - 2:34 pm at 2:34 pm

   GL. Forgive me if I assume you know my reference to the book “Moby Dick”. I know nothing of the festival of lights…

   • Gold Learner says:

     September 9, 2021 - 2:47 pm at 2:47 pm

     Sir Noman,
     This world is still worth living in, for there are kind and polite humans in it, like yourself.

     I have it right in front of me. I have not finished reading this book. Started reading it on Feb 10th 2020, then got laid off on Feb 26th 2020. Got reemployed June 15th 2020.

     Since then, this greedy pig has been eeking out more and more PM miners profits in the last 19 months, and with God’s grace, and a million thanks to the Goldtent community, has done a progressively better job despite the tough PM markets.

     One day, I’ll finish reading Moby Dick.
     Chapter XXXII (32), Cetalogy.
     That’s where time stopped for me.
     I am so much awed by the text that may be I’ll start all over again.
     You made my day, Sir Noman. Thank you for mentioning Moby Dick and Captain Ahab.

     God Bless you!
     GL

     PS: Let us all pray for Franklin Sanders’ family, many of whom are suddenly affected by Covid, this week. https://the-moneychanger.com/

5. Fullgoldcrown says:

   September 9, 2021 - 2:53 pm at 2:53 pm

   Thanks JSK

   But summer is all but over

   Lets just watch the action

   Personally I am clueless right now

   Rambus was long for 2 days now flat

6. silver fox says:

   September 9, 2021 - 3:23 pm at 3:23 pm

   I dipped my toes in. Made some pocket change. Flat now since yesterday morning.

   • Gold Learner says:

     September 9, 2021 - 3:26 pm at 3:26 pm

     Pocket change, LOL!

     Uncle Sam loves taxing pocket change, especially of the short term variety 😉

     GL

7. pedro_deleon says:

   September 9, 2021 - 3:28 pm at 3:28 pm

   I’ve laid out my views on the PMs. Trouble next few weeks.
   However, my friend EW Sam thinks a decent rally lies directly ahead. But I don’t see it just yet. Maybe in early Oct, if The Beltway fails to get its act together (on ceiling), or even if it does (more debt).

   To Noman … please use some kind of stops on your shorts. IMO, we are in a correction, not a topping for general equities. And a MESSY correction at that. I see a dollar down driven rally for this fall. PMs might catch a lift. After that, however, batten hatches.

8. Noman says:

   September 9, 2021 - 3:39 pm at 3:39 pm

   Agree that there is so much money sloshing around out there that the move I am looking to trade is 8-11% correction in the stock market but double that in the miners.

9. Noman says:

   September 9, 2021 - 3:44 pm at 3:44 pm

   The trading platform I use has settings which you preset the % of profit you will keep and once set you cannot change it. The amount of time needed to disengage is usually too long to have second thoughts.

   • Gold Learner says:

     September 9, 2021 - 3:53 pm at 3:53 pm

     My first reaction is … how does such a platform handle fake-outs to the downside, especially for the miners?

     Upon reading again, do you mean you will get out at 16-22% JDST profit?

     There are so many of these “systems” … can you not manually override it and sell JDST at, say, 13.5% profit?

     GL

10. Noman says:

    September 9, 2021 - 4:11 pm at 4:11 pm

    If you construct a two hour trading channel for JDST going back to late May you will see a false breakout down out of the channel 13 periods ago. Rambus has an interesting theory that you measure the distance outside the channel and add it to the top of the channel and that gives us 5 more points to go.

    • Gold Learner says:

      September 9, 2021 - 4:18 pm at 4:18 pm

      I see, thanks for sharing that!

      GL

11. Kewl2 says:

    September 9, 2021 - 10:11 pm at 10:11 pm

    For those looking for an individual junior explorer to evaluate — may I suggest you review New Found Gold T.NFG. Story tells itself and just requires DD. Price will be determined by the drill bit. Currently on sale @ ~8.50/sh after major ($57M) raise and major investor withdrawing to build a copper mine. Annual mtg on 09/17.

    • Gold Learner says:

      September 10, 2021 - 3:17 pm at 3:17 pm

      Sir Kewl2,

      Rarely have I watched a junior for so long, without buying it 🙂

      I saw NFGFF go from the USD 3.xx to 12 … finally bought my first tranche today @ USD 6.78

      GL