Loading ...Gold Silver Bear reasserting itself
Folks for those miffed at the action in the Gold and Silver stocks here is my interpretation. I am reemphasizing that the gold and silver stocks have been in a bear market for one year now. Bear markets are characterized by drip drip action interspersed by strong upside rallies. Clearly Mr Bear is reasserting his claws into the market after a brief 2 week bounce in the stocks. But one can see that this is unmistakably bear market action.
I do most of my writing on this subject over at the Rambus site. I know it’s not very welcome over here, but I would encourage one go back and re-read my bear market declaration piece I posted back in Mid-June. Nothing has changed, it has just progressed. My analysis is that the bear is in late Phase II and getting near to progressing into Phase III. Once Phase III expresses itself it will be time to buy with both hands.
Bear Market action:
Need more evidence:
Thanks Plunger
Your work is more than welcomed here.
I am sure it helped many sidestep this leg down .
Plus most have lost interest in this sector and we have had a dearth of charts
Keep us posted please
Not sure why those charts won’t expand. Suffice it to say gaps down under a declining 30 W EMA is not exactly encouraging
Would be good to expand those somehow.
Have my first monthly OS readings for the key ETFs in over a year.
Sometimes, the buy signals come the very next month.
Other times … they run in a series first, to wash out the herd.
My GUESS … the reading will repeat in Sept, then a buy in Oct.
But that’s just a guess here from my chart reading.
Announcing taper might do it … ironically.
Myself I can’t begin to guess how this plays out. I am just looking for price action and psychology to point towards a low. We are still a long way, but its progressing
PLUNGER …TO MAKE YOUR CHARTS EXPAND…DO THIS 1 TIME BEFORE YOUR NEXT CHART UPLOAD
https://goldtadise.com/?p=357408
I HAVE MADE THEM EXPANDABLE ON THOSPOST FOR OW
Thanks Plunger. I have followed you for many years now and your calls have been invaluable to me. Excellent work and thank you.
My biggest regret presently is it took 6 months for me to realize PM stocks were in a bear market, I remained in the “correction” camp.. I know now that I should have suspected it with the final silver blow off back last July-Aug 2020. That was the tell. Back in the 2011-2016 bear market (brutal 80-90% down) I didn’t figure it out until just before the POR. It finally dawned on me in FEB 2013, yeah that’s 1.5 years into it… duh! The POR came in April 2013.
My guess is we are sitting at a POR right now
POR’s have very well defined meanings in EW land. They are 3 of 3s.
But they can and do occur at various degrees.
I posted here on this board that we were setup for a sharp decline “this week or next” for GDX, and referenced the “c” word. This qualifies as a 3 of 3 type move, but only at low degree.
I also suggested Manchin might be the pin. The “tapering” crack in the wall of endless credit. PMs have for a while now sniffed out the end of this road. China too. But the real ‘sniffing agent’ will be longer term treasuries. That’s the titantic POR (in yield terms) that should be on everyone’s radar.
I am wondering if we go back to the March 2020 lows?
I don’t “know” anything, but would think its a virtual certainty based on the typical path of bear markets.
I have no position in the miners. I am short MRNA. Have a laugh on me if it goes up.
MRNA short… gutsy move Mav… but I do see how it has blown out all of the overbought metrics
Do you mind sharing your highest crosswind landing on one of those heavies?
40 Kts… routine stuff
Believe it or not, but I’ve been growing increasingly bearish on the entire PM Group since the dramatic drop on June 16th. And I patiently waited (and hoped!)for another bounce to the 200-Day SMA, which, BTW, is now clearly down-trending. That patience paid off on Wednesday and I sold the December ’21 Comex Gold at…1,833.20.
It was luck, but it wasn’t “dumb luck”. At the present I’m fully hedged on my physical and I’d already sold ALL of my GLD, PHYS and GDX back in late January at $173.50, $14.58 and $36.66 respectively.
I’ve been turning increasingly bearish due to (A) this guy, https://tsi-blog.com/2021/06/revisiting-the-most-important-gold-fundamental/ , who by the way has been absolutely right about AND on the right side of gold, crude oil and the stock market for at least the past five years, and (B) Ross Clark whose work I’ve posted here at crucial points in gold over the past five months.
And finally, it takes a really “thick-headed” person to blame or reject Plunger’s comments because he doesn’t tell us what we really want to hear.