Loading ...Two Final Hurdles To Clear
It has been clear and many of us have said so. Last week’s FED orchestrated takedown of gold and silver was the last chance for the bullion banks to cover their paper shorts before the Basel 3 rules begin to go into effect. Powell and his minions have been talking out of both sides of their mouths and have basically walked back just about everything said. They needed to create the impression of a change in policy because inflation was so bad they had lost all credibility. It doesn’t matter that he and the others never really said or did anything different. Just by coordinating their selling in the futures market and getting traders to follow suit they can accomplish anything they want(at least for a day or two at a time). The dust (andBS) has settled. After the final two hurdles, tomorrow and Friday concludes the June futures and options contracts for gold and silver and next Wed. concludes the month, quarter and first half. After that, the metals should resume their climb to new highs over the months and years to come.
EXCELLENT COMMENTARY SIR CM
+1
While anything is possible at this point, history strongly suggests this consolidation could go on much longer. Personally, I still think silver is still too far away from its 100 WMA to make a serious breakout. A large tradeable bounce? Maybe, but even with that scenario I think it’s likely gold makes a lower low sometime in the next couple of weeks, which will take silver with it.
I also look at the 100 week bollinger bands for silver to see if the stage is set for the next rally. And IMO, the bands are still way too far apart to produce a sustained breakout above $30. We probably need 6-9 months more withing the $21-30 range before the bands are sufficiently tight to produce the next sustained move. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But history is history. Another indicator that suggests the next upleg is not ready is the fact that the weekly MACD has not even hit 0 yet. I don’t think we will get a breakout until the weekly MACD completely resets itself by either approaching 0 or going at least slightly negative.
Y’all don’t want to know my thoughts.
The next short term move is down to new lows for this decline off the reaction high.
Then … perhaps a bounce. I would guess an abc for a 2nd wave. Eat up some time, at least.
THEN … like I said, you don’t want to know.
yes, but you just recently said you thought gold would make a higher high than the June 1 high before rolling over and that didn’t come close to playing out.
IMO, there is absolutely nothing in the charts to suggest that the consolidation we have been in since July/August of last year is any different than any of the other 1-2 year consolidations we had during the last bull run.
Correct. The early June high was not eclipsed. I was calling for a marginally higher high over coming weeks, but at the same time I said that we would decline considerably from there. That marginal new high did not occur, and we dropped straight away. That decline is only just starting. This is not a bull run, and these aren’t consolidations.
Not sure how you can say silver is not in an absolutely textbook consolidation.
same pattern as 2012 event, dow, s&p gang feeling tired so dollar gets the love for a while is my 2 cents.