Loading ...10 year and 30 year bonds putting in classic topping candles today…
We’ll see how they close, but right now, they look like they are topping today, at least for the next month IMO. This is especially clear on the 30 year bond. Is this a guarantee that gold has found a bottom too? Odds are pretty good that it will bottom here and rally.
That being said, I think it is possible that gold could make a marginal lower low than today at the end of March. That would also put us around 16 weeks for the intermediate cycle, which I see as the minimum reasonable cycle length.
Good Chart Nautilus
This governs EVERYTHING
Lets see the close
I’m seeing peak MOMENTUM levels on my monthlies for long duration T yields.
However, in EW terms those are THIRD wave tops, suggesting a correction, then higher later this spring.
And most of my momentum indicators need to FADE A LOT before I get yield sell signals.
If you use CCI, its often that they get over 200+ and then drop, but the underlying tops only later as the drop approaches 100, not the initial drop off the indicator highs. That is what I suspect here. That opens to the door for several months more of elevated yields.
One other note … SPX selloff not helping bonds today (see 7yr auction) and miners are not sniffing out a turn here either. And I doubt yields drop without crude dropping. And its not.
Oh I agree that yields could go to the moon in time. The Fed will step in at some point, however. I am sure JPM and GS are positioning themselves before they make the announcement though.
“The Fed will step in at some point”
LOL.
They are ALREADY stepping in to the tune of $120 B a month.