As I have been saying for over a month now, the HUI’s next window of opportunity to rally above 310 will come in the first week of March, based on the daily Ichimoku cloud (the blue box below demarcates a weak zone in the cloud that can be broken through).  If it fails there, the next window will come in April.

Even if it manages to burst through the 310 level in March, I have my serious doubts whether the HUI will be able to even match its July peak during this intermediate cycle, since we will have already chewed up 3 months going nowhere.  More likely, best case we match or marginally exceed the July 2020 high before rolling over into the next intermediate cycle low, which I think could come in June, probably around current levels or wherever the 100 WMA is at the time.

Right now, I don’t think we will leave behind the 380 level for good until late in 2021.  I think the next low risk buying opportunity will come when it tags that rising 100 WMA sometime this summer.  Also, I think silver may basically be in the same boat, although it is possible a tag of the rising 50 WMA will be enough at its next ICL.