Loading ...We’ll see how the PMs close…
But today is obviously creating a bit of chart damage. Today’s close and Monday”s close are pretty critical. If we were to continue to break down today and early next week the odds of a double bottom scenario increase dramatically IMO. This cycle may just turn out to be a complete dud in terms of a price high (but I do expect the November low in gold to ultimately hold).
If the CB’s don’t keep bond yields under control (10 yr is breaking out of range), big trouble for PM’s and the market in general IMO. 30 yr yields are approaching the March spike high. They will save us to save themselves.
ZH follow up
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slammed-again-10y-yield-spikes-above-cta-liquidation-trigger
Sticking with the miners (believe will not break new low) and looking to buy more phys during tax refund + free covid-cash season. The rebound in PM’s after a mkt-sympathetic selloff may be huge.
I can make a buy the blood in the streets argument here, mid bolinger band tag, back test of gold and silver, etc.
The bear side is there too-GDX never broke out of the flag/channel. So far the GDXJ break out was a fake out. GDX still looks like a big H&S…WPM and KL have large H&S patterns in play
I think before silver goes parabolic it is probably going to have to test its 55 week EMA. I think that test could come at the end of March or early April, which would also correspond to a test of the top of weekly Ichimoku cloud support. I would expect that test to come in around $23, so I am not expecting any sort of significant breakdown as of now. Rather, I think we could be in for rangebound trading between now and then.
However, if gold drops below its November low, I will no doubt be concerned since I do respect cycle analysis and that throws a literal wrench into the works for the bulls.
For a while now, at least since Aug, I’ve had neither go long nor go short triggers on my serious LT (rent and hold) signals. Just a lot of s/t and IT whipsaw moves, both ways.
I was expecting a bullish LT regime to appear, as early as last month, but it didn’t comply (red flag). I’m still not yet a LT bear either. (Yes, its on my radar!) Its all tied to rates, and the next equities selloff might yield that next and final bull leg for PMs and bond prices … the missing 5th, or a failure and just a right shoulder? Stay tuned.
Yes, ‘it’s all tied to rates’ Just as in the ’70’s rates will only be allowed to rise BEHIND inflation (neg real yields to be maintained).
Maybe CB’s allowing yields to rise means a big inflation print coming (stagflation), then PM’s could be off to the races. Staying tuned.