The HUI printed a black candle today (closed lower than today’s open, but still above yesterday’s low).

Since the 2016 low, I can only recall one instance of a black candle printing and price NOT eventually closing below that day’s close at some point in the following days and weeks.  The one exception was on May 29, 2019.  The HUI printed a black candle that day and price rallied the day after  and never looked back.

Basically, there is a 99% chance we close lower than 298.47 (today’s close) in the days and possibly weeks ahead.

Overall, today’s candle is particularly bearish for near term action.  It’s been ridiculously reliable as an indicator of an ensuing false rally.  Is today like May 29, 2019?  Odds are stacked heavily against that scenario.  Even if price takes off tomorrow and rallys for a month or two, heavy odds say we are going to retrace that entire rally eventually.

Rather than a new rally beginning tomorrow, my guess is we are going to see some serious whipsaw up and down action within the next couple of weeks as the bollinger bands narrow in, even a possible retest of November’s low before the HUI can mount a sustainable rally.