Loading ...PMs and miners, what now?
We’ve got a daily swing low in gold. All we need now for confirmation of a final intermediate cycle low is a weekly swing low.
As of now, my expectation is that we will be rangebound until late summer/early fall of 2021. That means we can mount a significant rally from here, but I am not expecting anything more than a marginal break of this years highs, if we even manage that, between now and then.
I hope I am wrong about this and we can just continue to stair step higher from here, but given how long gold takes to consolidate after such a huge run and correction on a historical basis, I think the weight of the evidence suggests we are going to be stuck in a sideways trading range for 1-1.5 years (we are already 4 months into that). It’s possible gold won’t leave sub $2100 prices behind for good until early to mid 2022.
Thanks Sir Naught
We missed your commentary
That’s somewhat of a buzz kill! What was the evidence you mention?
My expectations are much more bullish
My posture is be right and sit tight for 2021… Actually sit tight is a euphemism, better to say strap in and hang on! Again expectations are for a double in the stocks, CNBC is going to be shocked
Monthly TSIs, weekly MACDs, gold’s distance from its 100 and 200 WMAs.
Gold is still stretched far above its 100 and 200 WMAs. When the 100 WMA gets into the 1800s, it think it will be in better shape to mount a huge rally. But mostly I am looking at past gold rallies and corrections of similar magnitudes—2006 for example. It typically takes gold at least a year to finally leave the prior peak in the dust. Also, I think the March crash is going to weigh on the technicals until we are past March 2021.
I sincerely hope that you are right since gold bulls have been patiently waiting for our time, but I think it’s going to be rangebound for a while.
Those are good objective measures to be monitoring and they may turn out to be useful… Looked at through a different lens however I would throw out that perhaps we are entering into a more advanced stage of the bull market and price can stay in the overbought zone for a longer period of time. I will take a closer look at it.
It could be we are entering the next stage of the bull, but I’m not going to get my hopes up. Gold has had a heck of a 2 year rally and I don’t think it’s ready for a huge up leg yet.
There is a very obvious 30 day trading pattern in the miners. It bottoms and produces a rally in the last few days of the month. My tools tell me this rally will probably go to the top of the trading range. GDXJ
66 target by mid Feb.
This particular leg/impulse should last 5 more trading days.
I don’t use Elliott much but think of the Aug thru late Nov decline as an A wave and now we are in B. Unfortunately the non producing small stocks usually do not participate in B waves but the producers do.