Gold is still seeking its ICL for this cycle.  We know this since the September 24 low was taken out this week.  That means we are currently on week 34 of this IC.  I am willing to bet the ICL comes some in the next 2 weeks.  (I’m not sure what the longest IC gold has ever had, but in the last few years, 36 weeks is about the longest IC, IIRC.)  An absolute requirement for an ICL is a weekly swing low.  The odds of this week forming the low are virtually nil because of this.  (If this week does mark the low, it will be one of the craziest lows we’ve seen.)

I am fairly certain that the HUI will be hitting its 50 WMA in one of two timeframes in the next 6 months–either at the upcoming gold intermediate cycle low (again, due in the next couple of weeks) or at the next intermediate cycle low (ICL), which could conservatively come in April or May of 2021 (assuming at least a 24 week IC from trough to trough).  Notice that the 50 WMA will likely get very close to the Ichimoku cloud around that time, which should offer very solid support.  I think the odds are higher of the HUI hitting the 50 WMA at that time.   Therefore, I do not think the next IC will do much more than make a marginal new high before rolling over.

Notice how $gold’s 50 WMA will touch the top of its Ichimoku cloud at around the same time.  Convenient.

Also, notice that the HUI’s MACD has clearly rolled over but is still positive.  I believe there are maybe one or two instances of the HUI having a massive leg up in the last 20 years with the MACD configured as now.  99% of the time, the MACD has to reach neutral (0) or go negative before a large leg up can ensue.  Personally, I think the MACD will touch neutral and/or go negative at the ICL in the spring of 2021.