Not a dealbreaker for a powerful rally (i.e., well beyond the August highs), but it’s not reassuring to see such an ugly candle, especially on the HUI.

If we kill another 2-3 weeks backing and filling, I personally think we will be lucky to see the August highs by late December–I will almost certainly be selling a substantial part of my mining positions if it takes that long to finally match or slightly exceed the August highs.

It could be that this intermediate cycle, which I anticipate will find the next bottom in early March, is just part of a long sideways consolidation.  Wouldn’t be shocked at all if we are basically range bound until the second half of 2021–basically give enough time for the 100 WMAs to catch up to price across the complex.

We can just never catch a break in the PM complex.  We haven’t had a smooth ramp in price in over a decade.  We had the spike in 2016 followed by an unbearably horrible series of lower lows and lower highs.  Then when we finally got some traction in 2019, we got March 2020, which took the complex back to ground zero, which was then followed by an enormous rally that I doubt any trader was able to 100% take advantage of.  The next year could be another tough period.