While I think gold and silver bottomed on September 24th and began a new intermediate cycle, my original expectation was that this current intermediate cycle would blast off, with silver potentially getting into the $40+ range.

However, the more I look at the charts, it’s quite possible that gold, silver and the miners could be stuck in a sideways consolidation until late spring/early summer 2021.  Under this scenario, while it’s possible gold, silver and the miners could make a marginally higher high than the last intermediate cycle, I think that’s about the best that we could see.  I would still expect them to all make a higher low at the next intermediate cycle low, however, it may just be a barely higher low.

The bottom line is that the 50 WMA could need to catch up to price for both gold and silver and if that is the case this sideways or potential triangle consolidation into the middle of next year may be in the cards.

One other point, is that the weekly MACD is still positive for the miners currently, but has rolled over.  While it’s possible we could get a major leg up from here, if you look at the HUI over the long term, it almost never makes a large leg up until the MACD gets back to neutral.  So while we may get a large rally in the near term, which would send the MACD back up, odds are it will roll over and head to neutral or even negative before the HUI can make a serious move higher.  The HUI weekly chart could end up looking something like this: