In my opinion, if gold and silver are going to make significantly higher highs in the next few months, the current intermediate cycle has pretty much run its course–so yes, I am calling today as the bottom.  A few weeks ago I called for $23 silver as a downside target and we are hitting that today.  We’ve also marginally broken below the August low in gold at $1874, which is also what I wanted to see.

I also said I expect GDX to hit its 100 dma, which we have done today.

If we were to go all the way back down to $20 or even $19 in silver, I think its is probably going to take over 1 year before 2020’s highs are taken out for good, based on historical action.

From a risk reward point of view, I think today is a good day to add to positions or to start a new position.  From a pure cycles point of view, however, ideally you wait for a weekly swing low to go long, and that would absolutely be the safest thing to do at this juncture.

This is just my bullishly biased opinion.  It is absolutely possible that we go much lower (e.g. the 200 dma), which would still be totally normal for a healthy bull market (many smart analysts are calling for just that).  However, if we do go that low, expect a long slog before we finally break free of this year’s highs.