Loading ...Gold’s next low…
Gary Savage is predicting that gold will come down to tag its 200 dma, currently at $1717 and rising. Personally I think that is too predictable/obvious and therefore won’t happen. I am basically calling for $1850, possibly $1825 on a spike low. Best case scenario for me would be just a marginal break of $1874.
He’s also predicting that the next intermediate cycle will take us well past $2000 and sustainably so. Well, based on history, that is highly unlikely if we do in fact go all the way back down to test the $1700-1750 level. More than likely it will be at least a year and likely a year and a half before the recent high is firmly taken out.
I am most certainly a biased long, and would prefer to see gold make a major new high over the next 4-5 months. That is one of the reasons I would prefer to see a more shallow ICL. I think the lower gold drops, the higher the likelihood we are in for a 2006-2008 type consolidation.
Check his track record
Not very good
When it comes to Cycle Analysis….Surf City is the best IMO
Not for nothing but I have found cycles to be hit and miss. Like EW practicioners they are always changing their parameters. If this, then that. Once in a blue moon they nail it but most of the time the cycle changed from x days to x plus or x minus and never before the call but afterwards to explain why the call was wrong. EW same thing, it is either a major wave, a minor wave, then when it doesn’t do what it was supposed to do, it was a minuet or some other bs. Basic charting, mvg. averages, breakouts and support and resistance. Keep it simple and forget the mumbo jumbo.
Totally agree, mainly because those people want to sell you their crystal ball predictions.
This from a guy who put half his net worth into silver options just before the 2013 crash.
His calls over the last few years have been pretty decent, and the cycles have been useful (how many here were calling for a break up over the last couple of months?).
And there isn’t necessarily anything unheard of in saying gold will correct to the 200 dma–as I noted before, gold either tagged or got within spitting distance of its 200 dma at virtually every ICL during the last bull run.
I am definitely a biased long, so I would prefer to see one last advance before a year+ consolidation, and so I am hoping for “spitting distance” instead of a full on tag of the 200 dma. And even then, it’s still possible we are ready for year+ consolidation given how far gold is from its 200 WMA.
That 2013 disaster was pretty egregious, however I will say he seems to have learned some over the past few years. I don’t really follow him except for the occasional video that crosses my path, but what turned me off years ago was his willingness to embrace guru status which he got from his subscribers who were clearly green investors. Hopefully he has grown out of this. We have to be very careful in this business as so many are flawed with the most serious of all flaws which of course is “pride of opinion”. I see so much of this on twitter.
One can actually use this “pride gauge”as a contrary indicator. A recent example was as silver reached the high of its range 2 weeks ago there was a lot of chest thumping by those who just loaded up on silver stocks. I used the occasion to sell down my holdings and actually go naked short the ETf’s SILJ and SIL. It was a gutsy move and I did go red for awhile, but yesterday was the payday. One of the things that sustained me was this prevalence of arrogant opinion on twitter.
A good rule of thumb is that if you are not sweating when you are buying, then you likely are not buying right
He was a mess from 2011-2013. The arrogance still seems to be present as I listened to some of his recent youtubes…This is what really bugs me about the EW & Cycle types. I get it, things don’t go straight up but have some humility, there are no crystal balls.
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