I see quite a few gold enthusiasts calling for an imminent breakout to the upside.  I will take the other side of that bet based on empirical price action.

Since the 2018 low at $1167, there have been three intermediate cycles (measured from trough to trough).

Weekly cycle 1 peaked on week 27 and lasted 37 weeks.

Weekly cycle 2 peaked on week 17 and lasted 28 weeks.

Weekly cycle 3 peaked on week 17 and lasted 18 weeks (this was the Covid crash, so highly unusual IMO).

The fourth weekly cycle we are in the midst of now.  It appears to have peaked on week 20.  It remains to be seen how long its lasts (we are on week 26 currently).

In one of the comments, Chartmaster stated he expected that the correction in gold could last until Thanksgiving.  I said that would represent a weekly cycle of 36 weeks, and therefore wasn’t likely.  While 36 weeks would be considered to be longer than usual, obviously based on the above data, it isn’t impossible.   That would mean we potentially have another 10 weeks from today before gold finds an intermediate (i.e., weekly) cycle low.

Personally, I am going to stick with my call for the ICL to occur by week 30, which would be the week of October 12th.  Based on the miners’ charts, I think that is the most likely outcome.  However, given how stretched gold and silver are from their weekly MAs (20 WMA on up to the 200 WMA), it’s quite possible the ICL comes at a later time, perhaps as late as Chartmaster’s Thanksgiving prediction.